LX HausysLX하우시스
108670 · KOSPI · ₩108670 · LX하우시스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩52,183
vs the current price (₩28,300)
- Enterprise value
- ₩997B
- Equity value
- ₩522B
- WACC
- 5.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 84% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩28,300, the model needs an operating margin of 1.6% every year (it uses 2.0%).
- Or revenue growth −7.6 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩52,183
- +84.4%
- Bull
- ₩343,767
- +1,114.7%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.0%).
Revenue growth
- -4.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -2.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 7.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.29, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩3.3T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩476B
- Shares
- 10,000,000
- incl. 1,032,330 preferred
- Share price
- ₩28,300
- Market cap
- ₩272B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩3.5T | ₩3.6T | ₩3.2T | ₩3.2T | ₩3.1T | ₩3.1T | ₩3.1T | ₩3.2T |
| Growth | −2.4% | 1.3% | −11.0% | −4.2% | −2.4% | −0.6% | 1.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩110B | ₩97B | ₩13B | ₩64B | ₩62B | ₩62B | ₩63B | ₩65B |
| EBIT margin | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩80B | ₩71B | ₩9.5B | ₩46B | ₩45B | ₩45B | ₩45B | ₩47B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩70B | ₩69B | ₩68B | ₩69B | ₩71B |
| − Capital spending | ₩102B | ₩101B | ₩80B | ₩86B | ₩84B | ₩84B | ₩85B | ₩87B |
| − Working capital | −₩98B | ₩70B | −₩25B | −₩11B | −₩5.9B | −₩1.4B | ₩2.9B | ₩7.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩41B | ₩35B | ₩31B | ₩27B | ₩23B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.951 | 0.904 | 0.859 | 0.817 | 0.776 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩39B | ₩32B | ₩27B | ₩22B | ₩18B |
Terminal value ₩1.1T, worth ₩860B today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩92,473 a share)Now 0.31× | ₩30,9500.33× | ₩41,7620.45× | ₩58,4900.63× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | ₩62,244 | ₩76,727 | ₩97,750 | ₩131,090 | ₩192,159 |
| 4.7% | ₩47,176 | ₩57,132 | ₩70,740 | ₩90,493 | ₩121,816 |
| 5.2% | ₩35,707 | ₩42,844 | ₩52,183 | ₩64,946 | ₩83,470 |
| 5.7% | ₩26,687 | ₩31,967 | ₩38,649 | ₩47,391 | ₩59,338 |
| 6.2% | ₩19,410 | ₩23,412 | ₩28,345 | ₩34,588 | ₩42,753 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩254B
- Enterprise value
- ₩626B
- P/E
- 7.0×
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩28,800 | ₩31,900 | ₩43,600 | ₩31,250 | ₩61,500 |
| Market cap | ₩258B | ₩286B | ₩391B | ₩280B | ₩552B |
| P/E | — | 6.5× | 6.3× | — | 42.1× |
| P/B | 0.3× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.6× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 3.1% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LX Hausys | 7.0× | 0.3× | 0.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology | 5.8× | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 4.0% |
| Kumho Tire | 3.1× | 0.6× | 0.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Pum-Tech Korea | 19.8× | 2.5× | 2.1× | — | 0.7% |
| Dongwon Systems | 9.7× | 0.7× | 0.4× | 5.7× | 2.8% |
| Nexen Tire | 3.6× | 0.3× | 0.2× | — | 3.5% |
| PI Advanced Materials | 12.4× | 1.2× | 1.7× | 5.0× | 2.3% |
| Similar companies (median) | 7.7× | 0.6× | 0.4× | 5.4× | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: LX Hausys / LX하우시스 / 108670 / KRX:108670
Source: KRX statistical information