Ask Warren

Youngone

111770 · KOSPI · ₩111770 · 영원무역

₩67,700▼ ₩400 (0.59%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩195,647

vs the current price (₩67,700)

Enterprise value
₩7.9T
Equity value
₩8.7T
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 189% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩67,700, the model needs an operating margin of 5.4% every year (it uses 14.9%).
  • Margins ranged from 9.0% to 21.0% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 5.1× against a typical 4.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩133,146
+96.7%
Base
₩195,647
+189.0%
Bull
₩300,872
+344.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (14.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 14.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 36.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.11, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩4.3T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩740B
+ Stakes and investments
₩69B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩12B
Shares
44,311,468
Share price
₩67,700
Market cap
₩3T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩3.6T₩3.5T₩4.1T₩4.4T₩4.5T₩4.6T₩4.7T₩4.8T
Growth−7.8%−2.4%15.5%1.3%1.7%2.1%2.6%3.0%
EBIT₩637B₩316B₩514B₩655B₩666B₩680B₩698B₩719B
EBIT margin17.7%9.0%12.7%14.9%14.9%14.9%14.9%14.9%
After-tax EBIT₩462B₩229B₩373B₩475B₩483B₩493B₩506B₩521B
+ Depreciation———₩167B₩170B₩174B₩178B₩183B
− Capital spending₩181B₩124B₩230B₩207B₩210B₩215B₩220B₩227B
− Working capital−₩208B−₩27B₩157B₩20B₩27B₩34B₩43B₩51B
Free cash flow———₩415B₩416B₩418B₩421B₩427B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———₩386B₩360B₩337B₩316B₩299B

Terminal value ₩8.8T, worth ₩6.2T today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩101,924 a share)Now 0.66×₩54,8500.54×₩74,5760.73×₩96,8850.95×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩13,333 a share)Now 5.08×₩41,2073.09×₩59,4194.46×₩95,4157.16×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩14,132 a share)Now 4.79×₩43,6763.09×₩62,9794.46×₩101,1317.16×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩207,346₩220,448₩236,489₩256,597₩282,564
6.9%₩190,943₩201,411₩213,984₩229,376₩248,671
7.4%₩177,109₩185,605₩195,647₩207,706₩222,470
7.9%₩165,286₩172,273₩180,420₩190,048₩201,610
8.4%₩155,068₩160,878₩167,575₩175,383₩184,610

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩3T
Enterprise value
₩2.1T
P/E
5.1×
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩81,800₩42,400₩45,600₩46,950₩43,650
Market cap₩3.6T₩1.9T₩2T₩2.1T₩1.9T
P/E7.4×4.4×3.9×3.1×6.5×
P/B0.9×0.5×0.6×0.7×0.9×
P/S0.9×0.5×0.6×0.5×0.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.6%3.3%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Samsung C&T18.8×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.6×1.3×0.3×—3.7%
ISC45.3×6.0×12.6×—0.5%
Dong SUH Companies18.9×1.6×5.1×—4.2%
Shinsegae14.4×0.5×0.3×—2.0%
Lotte Shopping13.1×0.2×0.2×—4.8%
Similar companies (median)16.6×0.9×0.8×—2.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Youngone / 영원무역 / 111770 / KRX:111770

Source: KRX statistical information