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Grand Korea Leisure

114090 · KOSPI · ₩114090 · GKL

₩8,020▼ ₩200 (2.43%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩11,799

vs the current price (₩8,020)

Enterprise value
₩571B
Equity value
₩730B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 47% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩8,020, the model needs an operating margin of 4.6% every year (it uses 7.3%).
  • Or revenue growth −13.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from −171.4% to 12.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 10.5× against a typical 22.4× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩7,350
−8.3%
Base
₩11,799
+47.1%
Bull
₩19,410
+142.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.3%).

Revenue growth

  • 17.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 13.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 10.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (17.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 7.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 2.5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 8.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.02, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩443B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩159B
Shares
61,855,670
Share price
₩8,020
Market cap
₩496B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩397B₩396B₩423B₩520B₩591B₩651B₩694B₩715B
Growth51.3%−0.1%6.7%17.3%13.7%10.1%6.6%3.0%
EBIT₩51B₩38B₩53B₩38B₩43B₩48B₩51B₩52B
EBIT margin12.9%9.7%12.4%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%
After-tax EBIT₩37B₩28B₩38B₩28B₩31B₩34B₩37B₩38B
+ Depreciation₩8.8B₩8.8B₩8.4B₩11B₩12B₩14B₩15B₩15B
− Capital spending₩16B₩5.6B₩8.6B₩13B₩15B₩16B₩17B₩18B
− Working capital₩60B₩45B−₩13B₩6.5B₩6.1B₩5.1B₩3.7B₩1.8B
Free cash flow−₩30B−₩15B₩51B₩19B₩23B₩27B₩30B₩33B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———₩18B₩20B₩22B₩23B₩23B

Terminal value ₩665B, worth ₩466B today: 82% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩7,311 a share)Now 1.10×₩11,6901.60×₩15,2352.08×₩20,6692.83×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩762 a share)Now 10.5×₩9,67012.7×₩17,03822.4×₩19,57225.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,165 a share)Now 6.88×₩14,78912.7×₩26,05822.4×₩29,93325.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩12,268₩13,052₩14,013₩15,221₩16,785
6.9%₩11,398₩12,030₩12,792₩13,727₩14,901
7.4%₩10,665₩11,184₩11,799₩12,539₩13,448
7.9%₩10,039₩10,471₩10,975₩11,573₩12,293
8.4%₩9,498₩9,862₩10,282₩10,772₩11,354

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩496B
Enterprise value
₩298B
P/E
10.5×
P/B
1.1×
P/S
1.1×
EV/EBITDA
4.6×
Dividend yield
5.2%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩14,970₩11,040₩13,490₩18,900₩13,150
Market cap₩926B₩683B₩834B₩1.2T₩813B
P/E19.7×20.7×19.0×——
P/B2.1×1.7×2.0×3.1×2.1×
P/S2.2×1.7×2.1×4.5×9.6×
EV/EBITDA11.7×12.2×12.1×——
Dividend yield2.8%2.6%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Grand Korea Leisure10.5×1.1×1.1×4.6×5.2%
Kangwon Land8.8×0.7×2.0×8.9×0.0%
Paradise11.8×0.5×0.7×—1.6%
Seobu T&D7.4×0.7×2.4×10.9×0.9%
Ananti—0.6×1.6×—0.0%
Mona Yongpyong—0.2×0.5×—0.0%
Namhwa Industrial9.3×0.3×3.7×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)9.1×0.5×1.8×9.9×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Grand Korea Leisure / GKL / 114090 / KRX:114090

Source: KRX statistical information