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Humax

115160 · KOSDAQ · ₩115160 · 휴맥스

₩5,100▼ ₩50 (0.97%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩179B
Equity value
−₩221B
WACC
5.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩5,100, the model needs an operating margin of 1.3% every year (it uses −2.8%).
  • Margins ranged from −7.8% to 1.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−2.8%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-17% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-17% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-17% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-17% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-17% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -2.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.62

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.43, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩386B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩41B
Shares
6,584,982
Share price
₩5,100
Market cap
₩34B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩653B₩536B₩394B₩347B₩324B₩313B₩312B₩321B
Growth−5.3%−17.9%−26.4%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩11B₩6.2B−₩29B−₩9.7B−₩9.1B−₩8.8B−₩8.7B−₩9B
EBIT margin1.7%1.2%−7.4%−2.8%−2.8%−2.8%−2.8%−2.8%
After-tax EBIT₩8.1B₩4.5B−₩21B−₩7.1B−₩6.6B−₩6.3B−₩6.3B−₩6.5B
+ Depreciation———₩3.1B₩2.9B₩2.8B₩2.8B₩2.9B
− Capital spending₩6.6B₩3.6B₩6.8B₩3.8B₩3.6B₩3.4B₩3.4B₩3.5B
− Working capital−₩33B−₩77B−₩138B₩772M₩465M₩227M₩13M−₩187M
Free cash flow———−₩8.5B−₩7.7B−₩7.2B−₩7B−₩7B
Discount factor———0.9480.8980.8510.8060.764
Present value———−₩8.1B−₩6.9B−₩6.1B−₩5.6B−₩5.3B

Terminal value −₩193B, worth −₩147B today: 82% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩18,927 a share)Now 0.27×₩7,9770.42×₩13,1060.69×₩17,2350.91×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.5%—————
5.0%—————
5.5%—————
6.0%—————
6.5%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩34B
Enterprise value
₩69B
P/E
2.6×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩7,910₩12,420₩29,950₩33,000₩48,049
Market cap₩52B₩82B₩197B₩217B₩316B
P/E—————
P/B0.6×0.5×0.9×0.8×1.0×
P/S0.1×0.2×0.3×0.3×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Humax2.6×0.3×0.1×—0.0%
Samsung C&T18.8×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.5×1.2×0.3×—3.8%
ISC45.4×6.1×12.7×—0.5%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies19.2×1.6×5.1×—4.1%
Shinsegae13.9×0.4×0.3×—2.1%
Similar companies (median)16.3×1.0×1.0×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Humax / 휴맥스 / 115160 / KRX:115160

Source: KRX statistical information