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Chosun Welding Pohang

120030 · KOSPI · ₩120030 · 조선선재

₩72,600▼ ₩500 (0.68%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩112,670

vs the current price (₩72,600)

Enterprise value
₩95B
Equity value
₩142B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 55% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩72,600, the model needs an operating margin of 7.9% every year (it uses 16.3%).
  • Or revenue growth −22.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • 45% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 7.4× against a typical 10.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩87,920
+21.1%
Base
₩112,670
+55.2%
Bull
₩154,482
+112.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (16.3%).

Revenue growth

  • -8.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -5.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 16.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.2, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩54B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩46B
Shares
1,257,651
Share price
₩72,600
Market cap
₩91B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩67B₩51B₩52B₩50B₩47B₩46B₩46B₩47B
Growth−0.5%−23.6%1.7%−8.2%−5.4%−2.6%0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩11B₩8.7B₩7.8B₩8.1B₩7.7B₩7.5B₩7.5B₩7.7B
EBIT margin15.9%17.1%15.0%16.3%16.3%16.3%16.3%16.3%
After-tax EBIT₩7.7B₩6.3B₩5.6B₩5.9B₩5.6B₩5.4B₩5.4B₩5.6B
+ Depreciation———₩199M₩188M₩184M₩184M₩189M
− Capital spending₩110M₩77M₩628M₩249M₩236M₩229M₩230M₩237M
− Working capital₩41B₩12B−₩3.8B−₩1.8B−₩1.1B−₩490M₩37M₩552M
Free cash flow———₩7.6B₩6.6B₩5.9B₩5.3B₩5B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩7.1B₩5.7B₩4.7B₩4B₩3.5B

Terminal value ₩100B, worth ₩70B today: 74% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩135,074 a share)Now 0.54×₩99,9200.74×₩113,8690.84×₩152,1361.13×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩9,837 a share)Now 7.38×₩76,2067.75×₩98,56010.0×₩133,53113.6×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩117,385₩122,785₩129,426₩137,796₩148,680
6.8%₩110,691₩114,993₩120,180₩126,557₩134,595
7.3%₩105,055₩108,539₩112,670₩117,649₩123,771
7.8%₩100,245₩103,105₩106,449₩110,413₩115,190
8.3%₩96,091₩98,466₩101,210₩104,417₩108,219

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩91B
Enterprise value
₩44B
P/E
7.4×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
1.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.7%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩96,100₩95,200₩98,400₩99,700₩109,500
Market cap₩121B₩120B₩124B₩125B₩138B
P/E12.9×7.4×9.5×11.9×9.5×
P/B0.7×0.8×0.8×0.9×1.1×
P/S2.3×2.4×1.9×1.9×2.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.5%0.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Chosun Welding Pohang7.4×0.5×1.7×—0.7%
CS Wind373.3×1.3×0.6×—2.6%
Hankuk Carbon7.6×1.2×0.9×—2.1%
Taewoong60.7×0.7×1.2×19.5×0.0%
YG-15.1×0.8×0.5×—1.9%
Bosung Power Technology18.2×2.1×1.8×8.2×0.0%
HT Robotics39.3×2.8×1.9×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)28.7×1.2×1.0×13.8×0.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Chosun Welding Pohang / 조선선재 / 120030 / KRX:120030

Source: KRX statistical information