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SD system

121890 · KOSDAQ · ₩121890 · 에스디시스템

₩2,430▼ ₩105 (4.14%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩490

vs the current price (₩2,430)

Enterprise value
₩1.9B
Equity value
₩6.5B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 80% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,430, the model needs an operating margin of 7.9% every year (it uses 0.4%).
  • Margins ranged from −12.0% to 7.8% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 79.4× against a typical 13.8× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩64
−97.4%
Base
₩490
−79.8%
Bull
₩1,279
−47.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.4%).

Revenue growth

  • 8.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 0.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 0.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -6.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.21, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩21B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩4.6B
Shares
13,291,446
Share price
₩2,430
Market cap
₩32B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩21B₩18B₩29B₩22B₩24B₩25B₩27B₩27B
Growth−5.3%−15.2%59.4%8.6%7.2%5.8%4.4%3.0%
EBIT₩1B−₩2.2B₩1.1B₩90M₩96M₩102M₩106M₩109M
EBIT margin4.8%−12.0%3.8%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
After-tax EBIT₩744M−₩1.6B₩798M₩65M₩70M₩74M₩77M₩79M
+ Depreciation₩154M₩137M₩123M₩135M₩144M₩153M₩159M₩164M
− Capital spending₩22M₩382M₩1.7M₩157M₩168M₩178M₩186M₩192M
− Working capital₩1.4B−₩3.6B₩3.3B−₩114M−₩103M−₩89M−₩72M−₩51M
Free cash flow−₩508M₩1.8B−₩2.4B₩156M₩149M₩138M₩122M₩103M
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩146M₩129M₩111M₩92M₩72M

Terminal value ₩1.9B, worth ₩1.3B today: 71% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩784 a share)Now 3.10×₩1,3351.70×₩1,7152.19×₩2,1462.74×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩31 a share)Now 79.4×₩2698.78×₩42113.8×₩2,54283.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩476₩496₩520₩550₩591
6.8%₩467₩483₩503₩528₩560
7.3%₩458₩473₩490₩511₩536
7.8%₩451₩464₩479₩496₩518
8.3%₩445₩456₩469₩484₩502

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩32B
Enterprise value
₩28B
P/E
79.4×
P/B
3.1×
P/S
1.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,740₩1,302₩1,894₩1,478₩1,478
Market cap₩23B₩17B₩25B₩20B₩20B
P/E18.1×—9.5×—8.2×
P/B1.9×1.6×2.1×2.1×2.5×
P/S0.8×1.0×1.2×0.9×0.9×
EV/EBITDA12.8×—15.3×—9.1×
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
SD system79.4×3.1×1.6×—0.0%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics88.7×8.7×7.2×—0.2%
Doosan34.5×4.9×0.6×—0.4%
Hanwha Systems65.1×2.5×2.8×—0.8%
LG Innotek11.6×1.2×0.3×—0.6%
Isupetasys30.8×7.2×4.7×—0.0%
Daeduck Electronics38.8×6.0×4.4×—0.4%
Similar companies (median)36.6×5.5×3.6×—0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: SD system / 에스디시스템 / 121890 / KRX:121890

Source: KRX statistical information