Korea Fuel-Tech코리아에프티
123410 · KOSDAQ · ₩123410 · 코리아에프티
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩19,309
vs the current price (₩4,915)
- Enterprise value
- ₩575B
- Equity value
- ₩538B
- WACC
- 6.6%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 293% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩4,915, the model needs an operating margin of 2.4% every year (it uses 4.8%).
- Today's P/E is 3.3× against a typical 4.6× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩5,134
- +4.4%
- Base
- ₩19,309
- +292.8%
- Bull
- ₩46,126
- +838.5%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.8%).
Revenue growth
- 11.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 9.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 7.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 4.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 4.1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 5.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 15.4%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.32, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩815B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩35B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩4.7B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩7.2B
- Shares
- 27,841,064
- Share price
- ₩4,915
- Market cap
- ₩137B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩680B | ₩736B | ₩786B | ₩912B | ₩1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.2T |
| Growth | 21.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩34B | ₩38B | ₩45B | ₩44B | ₩48B | ₩52B | ₩54B | ₩56B |
| EBIT margin | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩25B | ₩27B | ₩33B | ₩32B | ₩35B | ₩37B | ₩39B | ₩41B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩37B | ₩41B | ₩44B | ₩46B | ₩48B |
| − Capital spending | ₩35B | ₩35B | ₩43B | ₩47B | ₩51B | ₩55B | ₩58B | ₩59B |
| − Working capital | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩14B | ₩11B | ₩8.6B | ₩5.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩7.7B | ₩11B | ₩15B | ₩19B | ₩24B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.938 | 0.879 | 0.825 | 0.773 | 0.725 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩7.2B | ₩9.8B | ₩13B | ₩15B | ₩17B |
Terminal value ₩707B, worth ₩513B today: 89% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩10,244 a share)Now 0.48× | ₩5,4660.53× | ₩6,3590.62× | ₩9,3980.92× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,501 a share)Now 3.27× | ₩5,3203.54× | ₩6,8734.58× | ₩17,48211.6× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,766 a share)Now 2.78× | ₩6,2603.54× | ₩8,0884.58× | ₩20,57111.6× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | ₩21,147 | ₩23,098 | ₩25,580 | ₩28,844 | ₩33,336 |
| 6.1% | ₩18,720 | ₩20,213 | ₩22,062 | ₩24,412 | ₩27,504 |
| 6.6% | ₩16,728 | ₩17,895 | ₩19,309 | ₩21,058 | ₩23,282 |
| 7.1% | ₩15,066 | ₩15,993 | ₩17,096 | ₩18,432 | ₩20,085 |
| 7.6% | ₩13,658 | ₩14,405 | ₩15,280 | ₩16,321 | ₩17,581 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩137B
- Enterprise value
- ₩169B
- P/E
- 3.3×
- P/B
- 0.5×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 4.1%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩8,230 | ₩4,375 | ₩3,620 | ₩2,385 | ₩3,310 |
| Market cap | ₩229B | ₩122B | ₩101B | ₩66B | ₩92B |
| P/E | 5.2× | 3.5× | 3.3× | 7.1× | 19.3× |
| P/B | 0.9× | 0.6× | 0.6× | 0.5× | 0.7× |
| P/S | 0.3× | 0.2× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 2.4% | 3.4% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korea Fuel-Tech | 3.3× | 0.5× | 0.2× | — | 4.1% |
| Hyundai Mobis | 8.3× | 0.6× | 0.5× | — | 1.9% |
| SL | 5.9× | 0.8× | 0.4× | 3.6× | 0.0% |
| HL Mando | 10.3× | 0.6× | 0.2× | — | 2.0% |
| Hyundai WIA | 18.9× | 0.4× | 0.2× | — | 2.4% |
| Samhyun | — | 11.2× | 15.8× | — | 0.0% |
| SNT Dynamics | 12.5× | 0.7× | 0.8× | — | 7.3% |
| Similar companies (median) | 10.3× | 0.6× | 0.4× | 3.6× | 2.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Korea Fuel-Tech / 코리아에프티 / 123410 / KRX:123410
Source: KRX statistical information