Korea Fuel-Tech

123410 · KOSDAQ · ₩123410 · 코리아에프티

₩4,915▼ ₩35 (0.71%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩19,309

vs the current price (₩4,915)

Enterprise value
₩575B
Equity value
₩538B
WACC
6.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 293% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩4,915, the model needs an operating margin of 2.4% every year (it uses 4.8%).
  • Today's P/E is 3.3× against a typical 4.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩5,134
+4.4%
Base
₩19,309
+292.8%
Bull
₩46,126
+838.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 11.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 9.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 5.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 15.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.32, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩815B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩35B
+ Stakes and investments
₩4.7B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩7.2B
Shares
27,841,064
Share price
₩4,915
Market cap
₩137B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩680B₩736B₩786B₩912B₩1T₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.2T
Growth21.1%8.3%6.8%11.9%9.7%7.4%5.2%3.0%
EBIT₩34B₩38B₩45B₩44B₩48B₩52B₩54B₩56B
EBIT margin5.0%5.1%5.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%
After-tax EBIT₩25B₩27B₩33B₩32B₩35B₩37B₩39B₩41B
+ Depreciation———₩37B₩41B₩44B₩46B₩48B
− Capital spending₩35B₩35B₩43B₩47B₩51B₩55B₩58B₩59B
− Working capital₩13B₩14B₩14B₩15B₩14B₩11B₩8.6B₩5.2B
Free cash flow———₩7.7B₩11B₩15B₩19B₩24B
Discount factor———0.9380.8790.8250.7730.725
Present value———₩7.2B₩9.8B₩13B₩15B₩17B

Terminal value ₩707B, worth ₩513B today: 89% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩10,244 a share)Now 0.48×₩5,4660.53×₩6,3590.62×₩9,3980.92×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,501 a share)Now 3.27×₩5,3203.54×₩6,8734.58×₩17,48211.6×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,766 a share)Now 2.78×₩6,2603.54×₩8,0884.58×₩20,57111.6×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.6%₩21,147₩23,098₩25,580₩28,844₩33,336
6.1%₩18,720₩20,213₩22,062₩24,412₩27,504
6.6%₩16,728₩17,895₩19,309₩21,058₩23,282
7.1%₩15,066₩15,993₩17,096₩18,432₩20,085
7.6%₩13,658₩14,405₩15,280₩16,321₩17,581

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩137B
Enterprise value
₩169B
P/E
3.3×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩8,230₩4,375₩3,620₩2,385₩3,310
Market cap₩229B₩122B₩101B₩66B₩92B
P/E5.2×3.5×3.3×7.1×19.3×
P/B0.9×0.6×0.6×0.5×0.7×
P/S0.3×0.2×0.1×0.1×0.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.4%3.4%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Korea Fuel-Tech3.3×0.5×0.2×—4.1%
Hyundai Mobis8.3×0.6×0.5×—1.9%
SL5.9×0.8×0.4×3.6×0.0%
HL Mando10.3×0.6×0.2×—2.0%
Hyundai WIA18.9×0.4×0.2×—2.4%
Samhyun—11.2×15.8×—0.0%
SNT Dynamics12.5×0.7×0.8×—7.3%
Similar companies (median)10.3×0.6×0.4×3.6×2.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Korea Fuel-Tech / 코리아에프티 / 123410 / KRX:123410

Source: KRX statistical information