Alton알톤
123750 · KOSDAQ · ₩123750 · 알톤
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩905
vs the current price (₩1,629)
- Enterprise value
- ₩5.3B
- Equity value
- ₩13B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 44% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩1,629, the model needs an operating margin of 4.4% every year (it uses 1.7%).
- Margins ranged from −19.5% to 9.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩478
- −70.6%
- Base
- ₩905
- −44.5%
- Bull
- ₩1,733
- +6.4%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.7%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-14.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 1.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 20.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩35B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩7.2B
- Shares
- 13,819,259
- Share price
- ₩1,629
- Market cap
- ₩23B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩42B | ₩28B | ₩32B | ₩32B | ₩30B | ₩29B | ₩29B | ₩29B |
| Growth | −17.4% | −33.5% | 14.1% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩650M | −₩5.5B | ₩227M | ₩541M | ₩505M | ₩487M | ₩486M | ₩501M |
| EBIT margin | 1.5% | −19.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩471M | −₩4B | ₩165M | ₩392M | ₩366M | ₩353M | ₩353M | ₩363M |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩223M | ₩208M | ₩201M | ₩200M | ₩206M |
| − Capital spending | ₩186M | ₩269M | ₩382M | ₩287M | ₩267M | ₩258M | ₩257M | ₩265M |
| − Working capital | −₩6.8B | −₩1.3B | ₩496M | −₩715M | −₩431M | −₩210M | −₩12M | ₩173M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩1B | ₩738M | ₩506M | ₩307M | ₩131M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.753 | 0.702 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩972M | ₩640M | ₩409M | ₩231M | ₩92M |
Terminal value ₩4.3B, worth ₩3B today: 56% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩1,707 a share)Now 0.95× | ₩1,5350.90× | ₩2,4931.46× | ₩3,8272.24× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩976 | ₩974 | ₩971 | ₩967 | ₩961 |
| 6.8% | ₩944 | ₩940 | ₩934 | ₩927 | ₩918 |
| 7.3% | ₩917 | ₩911 | ₩905 | ₩896 | ₩886 |
| 7.8% | ₩894 | ₩887 | ₩880 | ₩871 | ₩859 |
| 8.3% | ₩873 | ₩867 | ₩859 | ₩849 | ₩838 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩23B
- Enterprise value
- ₩15B
- P/E
- 292.9×
- P/B
- 1.0×
- P/S
- 0.6×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,299 | ₩1,444 | ₩3,375 | ₩3,905 | ₩4,205 |
| Market cap | ₩18B | ₩20B | ₩47B | ₩54B | ₩58B |
| P/E | 84.7× | — | — | — | 12.0× |
| P/B | 0.9× | 1.0× | 1.8× | 2.0× | 2.1× |
| P/S | 0.6× | 0.7× | 1.1× | 1.1× | 1.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alton | 292.9× | 1.0× | 0.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Hyundai-Rotem | 10.8× | 2.6× | 1.4× | — | 0.8% |
| Iljin Hysolus | — | 1.2× | 3.7× | — | 0.0% |
| INNOXCorporation | 2.3× | 0.3× | 1.0× | — | 0.0% |
| KR Motors | 0.8× | 0.3× | 0.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 2.3× | 0.8× | 1.2× | — | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Alton / 알톤 / 123750 / KRX:123750
Source: KRX statistical information