Hanmi Pharm한미약품
128940 · KOSPI · ₩128940 · 한미약품
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩258,519
vs the current price (₩369,500)
- Enterprise value
- ₩3.3T
- Equity value
- ₩3.3T
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩167,431
- −54.7%
- Base
- ₩258,519
- −30.0%
- Bull
- ₩410,552
- +11.1%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (14.4%).
Revenue growth
- 5.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 14.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 5.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 27.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.39, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.7T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩137B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩17B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩185B
- Shares
- 12,810,991
- Share price
- ₩369,500
- Market cap
- ₩4.7T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.9T | ₩2T | ₩2T |
| Growth | 12.0% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩221B | ₩216B | ₩258B | ₩251B | ₩262B | ₩273B | ₩282B | ₩291B |
| EBIT margin | 14.8% | 14.5% | 16.7% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩160B | ₩157B | ₩187B | ₩182B | ₩190B | ₩198B | ₩205B | ₩211B |
| + Depreciation | ₩86B | ₩86B | ₩86B | ₩99B | ₩104B | ₩108B | ₩112B | ₩115B |
| − Capital spending | ₩44B | ₩63B | ₩77B | ₩70B | ₩73B | ₩76B | ₩78B | ₩81B |
| − Working capital | ₩133B | −₩179B | ₩240B | ₩23B | ₩22B | ₩20B | ₩18B | ₩16B |
| Free cash flow | ₩70B | ₩359B | −₩44B | ₩188B | ₩199B | ₩210B | ₩220B | ₩229B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.808 | 0.752 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩175B | ₩173B | ₩169B | ₩165B | ₩160B |
Terminal value ₩3.6T, worth ₩2.5T today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩109,580 a share)Now 3.37× | ₩360,1523.29× | ₩450,2214.11× | ₩531,4714.85× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩16,942 a share)Now 21.8× | ₩371,40121.9× | ₩596,53235.2× | ₩887,28052.4× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩3,820 a share)Now 96.7× | ₩83,73821.9× | ₩134,49735.2× | ₩200,05152.4× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩273,642 | ₩292,847 | ₩316,400 | ₩345,980 | ₩384,263 |
| 6.9% | ₩250,565 | ₩265,973 | ₩284,507 | ₩307,236 | ₩335,781 |
| 7.4% | ₩231,091 | ₩243,652 | ₩258,519 | ₩276,401 | ₩298,330 |
| 7.9% | ₩214,435 | ₩224,812 | ₩236,929 | ₩251,271 | ₩268,520 |
| 8.4% | ₩200,024 | ₩208,697 | ₩218,706 | ₩230,392 | ₩244,224 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩4.7T
- Enterprise value
- ₩4.6T
- P/E
- 21.8×
- P/B
- 3.4×
- P/S
- 2.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- 11.2×
- Dividend yield
- 0.5%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩452,000 | ₩280,500 | ₩352,500 | ₩298,000 | ₩276,000 |
| Market cap | ₩5.8T | ₩3.6T | ₩4.5T | ₩3.8T | ₩3.5T |
| P/E | 34.2× | 29.6× | 30.9× | 46.1× | 52.8× |
| P/B | 4.6× | 3.3× | 4.7× | 4.4× | 4.4× |
| P/S | 3.7× | 2.4× | 3.0× | 2.9× | 2.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.8× | 12.9× | 16.4× | 17.9× | 19.7× |
| Dividend yield | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanmi Pharm | 21.8× | 3.4× | 2.9× | 11.2× | 0.5% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.0× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.9× | 2.5× | 9.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 80.5× | 29.0× | 61.2× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.7× | 5.8× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 24.0× | 2.4× | 2.5× | 31.3× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.7× | 55.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.9× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 31.3× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Hanmi Pharm / 한미약품 / 128940 / KRX:128940
Source: KRX statistical information