GH Advanced MaterialsGH신소재
130500 · KOSDAQ · ₩130500 · GH신소재
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩522
vs the current price (₩1,712)
- Enterprise value
- ₩76B
- Equity value
- ₩7.6B
- WACC
- 4.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 69% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩1,712, the model needs an operating margin of 7.2% every year (it uses 6.4%).
- Or revenue growth +5.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩522
- −69.5%
- Bull
- ₩10,476
- +511.9%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.4%).
Revenue growth
- 0.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 6.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 14.5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 18.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 27.4%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.19, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩88B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩79B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩27B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩15B
- Shares
- 14,545,052
- Share price
- ₩1,712
- Market cap
- ₩25B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩89B | ₩84B | ₩88B | ₩89B | ₩89B | ₩91B | ₩93B | ₩96B |
| Growth | 2.2% | −5.7% | 4.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩4.7B | ₩7.7B | ₩6.8B | ₩5.7B | ₩5.7B | ₩5.8B | ₩5.9B | ₩6.1B |
| EBIT margin | 5.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩3.4B | ₩5.6B | ₩5B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.2B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.4B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩14B |
| − Capital spending | ₩24B | ₩18B | ₩5.2B | ₩16B | ₩16B | ₩16B | ₩17B | ₩17B |
| − Working capital | −₩635M | ₩11B | ₩2.5B | ₩73M | ₩243M | ₩392M | ₩572M | ₩764M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩848M | ₩687M | ₩553M | ₩394M | ₩232M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.954 | 0.911 | 0.869 | 0.829 | 0.792 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩809M | ₩626M | ₩480M | ₩327M | ₩183M |
Terminal value ₩93B, worth ₩73B today: 97% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩5,861 a share)Now 0.29× | ₩2,4000.41× | ₩3,0930.53× | ₩6,4471.10× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩295 a share)Now 5.81× | ₩2,0026.79× | ₩3,66812.4× | ₩10,60836.0× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.8% | ₩1,264 | ₩2,230 | ₩3,732 | ₩6,396 | ₩12,440 |
| 4.3% | ₩268 | ₩887 | ₩1,775 | ₩3,155 | ₩5,602 |
| 4.8% | — | — | ₩522 | ₩1,334 | ₩2,597 |
| 5.3% | — | — | — | ₩170 | ₩909 |
| 5.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩25B
- Enterprise value
- ₩104B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩2,430 | ₩2,720 | ₩2,915 | ₩4,080 | ₩7,150 |
| Market cap | ₩35B | ₩40B | ₩42B | ₩59B | ₩104B |
| P/E | — | 7.7× | 19.7× | 12.1× | 43.2× |
| P/B | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.5× | 0.8× | 1.5× |
| P/S | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.5× | 0.7× | 1.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: GH Advanced Materials / GH신소재 / 130500 / KRX:130500
Source: KRX statistical information