Optus Pharmaceutical옵투스제약
131030 · KOSDAQ · ₩131030 · 옵투스제약
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩2,757
vs the current price (₩5,850)
- Enterprise value
- ₩40B
- Equity value
- ₩49B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 53% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩5,850, the model needs an operating margin of 13.9% every year (it uses 10.7%).
- Or revenue growth +13.6 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Margins ranged from 9.0% to 18.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- 41% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
- Today's P/E is 8.3× against a typical 11.9× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩2,757
- −52.9%
- Bull
- ₩8,283
- +41.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.7%).
Revenue growth
- 14.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 11.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 10.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 5.1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 29.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 15.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.17, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩94B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩5.7B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩2.6B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 17,646,590
- Share price
- ₩5,850
- Market cap
- ₩103B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩72B | ₩82B | ₩87B | ₩108B | ₩120B | ₩130B | ₩138B | ₩142B |
| Growth | 23.5% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩8.2B | ₩8.6B | ₩8.9B | ₩12B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩15B |
| EBIT margin | 11.3% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩5.9B | ₩6.2B | ₩6.4B | ₩8.4B | ₩9.3B | ₩10B | ₩11B | ₩11B |
| + Depreciation | ₩4.2B | ₩3.9B | ₩4B | ₩5.5B | ₩6.1B | ₩6.6B | ₩7B | ₩7.2B |
| − Capital spending | ₩3.3B | ₩26B | ₩45B | ₩31B | ₩35B | ₩38B | ₩40B | ₩41B |
| − Working capital | −₩40B | −₩4.3B | ₩15B | ₩2B | ₩1.8B | ₩1.6B | ₩1.1B | ₩624M |
| Free cash flow | ₩47B | −₩11B | −₩50B | −₩20B | −₩21B | −₩23B | −₩24B | −₩24B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩18B | −₩19B | −₩18B | −₩18B | −₩17B |
Terminal value ₩186B, worth ₩130B today: 322% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩10,208 a share)Now 0.57× | ₩6,7620.66× | ₩8,7050.85× | ₩10,4271.02× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩703 a share)Now 8.32× | ₩6,2578.90× | ₩8,37911.9× | ₩15,45422.0× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩315 a share)Now 18.5× | ₩2,8068.90× | ₩3,75711.9× | ₩6,92922.0× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩3,057 | ₩3,804 | ₩4,719 | ₩5,868 | ₩7,352 |
| 6.9% | ₩2,302 | ₩2,905 | ₩3,629 | ₩4,516 | ₩5,630 |
| 7.4% | ₩1,679 | ₩2,173 | ₩2,757 | ₩3,459 | ₩4,319 |
| 7.9% | ₩1,158 | ₩1,568 | ₩2,047 | ₩2,613 | ₩3,294 |
| 8.4% | ₩720 | ₩1,064 | ₩1,461 | ₩1,925 | ₩2,474 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩103B
- Enterprise value
- ₩96B
- P/E
- 8.3×
- P/B
- 0.6×
- P/S
- 1.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.8×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩6,880 | ₩6,100 | ₩5,320 | ₩6,290 | ₩6,770 |
| Market cap | ₩121B | ₩108B | ₩94B | ₩111B | ₩119B |
| P/E | 10.7× | 10.4× | 8.7× | 22.1× | 12.1× |
| P/B | 0.7× | 0.7× | 0.7× | 0.9× | 0.9× |
| P/S | 1.4× | 1.3× | 1.3× | 1.9× | 2.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8× | 4.5× | 2.0× | 10.3× | 6.7× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optus Pharmaceutical | 8.3× | 0.6× | 1.1× | 6.8× | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.1× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.8× | 2.4× | 8.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 78.8× | 28.4× | 59.9× | — | 0.1% |
| Yuhan | 24.8× | 2.5× | 2.6× | 32.5× | 0.8% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.6× | 5.7× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| HLB | — | 15.4× | 54.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.8× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 32.5× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Optus Pharmaceutical / 옵투스제약 / 131030 / KRX:131030
Source: KRX statistical information