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GC Medical Science

142280 · KOSDAQ · ₩142280 · 녹십자엠에스

₩3,395▲ ₩115 (3.51%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
₩9.7B
Equity value
−₩7.4B
WACC
6.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,395, the model needs an operating margin of 7.4% every year (it uses 1.3%).
  • Or revenue growth +57.4 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from −19.8% to 2.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
₩1,658
−51.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.3%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 1.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -1.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.09, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩102B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩15B
− Minority interests
₩2.1B
Shares
23,963,031
Share price
₩3,395
Market cap
₩81B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩94B₩104B₩108B₩101B₩100B₩101B₩103B₩106B
Growth−16.9%10.5%4.4%−1.4%−0.3%0.8%1.9%3.0%
EBIT₩1.8B₩2.3B₩2.9B₩1.3B₩1.3B₩1.3B₩1.3B₩1.4B
EBIT margin1.9%2.2%2.7%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%
After-tax EBIT₩1.3B₩1.7B₩2.1B₩949M₩947M₩954M₩972M₩1B
+ Depreciation———₩3.7B₩3.7B₩3.7B₩3.8B₩3.9B
− Capital spending₩5.9B₩3.3B₩4.9B₩4.6B₩4.6B₩4.7B₩4.7B₩4.9B
− Working capital−₩13B₩11B₩3.4B₩16M₩3.3M−₩8.8M−₩21M−₩34M
Free cash flow———₩27M₩39M₩52M₩65M₩79M
Discount factor———0.9360.8750.8190.7660.717
Present value———₩25M₩34M₩42M₩50M₩57M

Terminal value ₩13B, worth ₩9.4B today: 98% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,253 a share)Now 1.51×₩4,5962.04×₩6,2712.78×₩8,9193.96×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.9%————₩16
6.4%—————
6.9%—————
7.4%—————
7.9%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩81B
Enterprise value
₩90B
P/E
—
P/B
1.5×
P/S
0.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,005₩3,580₩4,770₩5,780₩7,230
Market cap₩96B₩86B₩114B₩139B₩173B
P/E26.2×24.0×63.6×——
P/B2.2×2.1×3.3×4.2×4.8×
P/S0.9×0.8×1.2×1.2×1.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
GC Medical Science—1.5×0.8×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics32.0×7.6×14.0×—0.0%
Celltrion27.9×2.5×9.0×—0.0%
Alteogen80.5×29.0×61.2×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals14.7×5.8×6.8×—0.0%
Yuhan24.0×2.4×2.5×31.3×0.8%
HLB—15.7×55.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.9×6.7×11.5×31.3×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: GC Medical Science / 녹십자엠에스 / 142280 / KRX:142280

Source: KRX statistical information