Saramin사람인
143240 · KOSDAQ · ₩143240 · 사람인
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩47,766
vs the current price (₩16,120)
- Enterprise value
- ₩280B
- Equity value
- ₩513B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 196% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩16,120, the model needs an operating margin of −3.6% every year (it uses 19.9%).
- Margins ranged from 13.8% to 30.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- 85% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- Today's P/E is 1.7× against a typical 10.4× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩38,592
- +139.4%
- Base
- ₩47,766
- +196.3%
- Bull
- ₩62,793
- +289.5%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (19.9%).
Revenue growth
- -6.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -4.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -1.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 19.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 1.5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 3.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.04, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩125B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩175B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩57B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 10,732,731
- Share price
- ₩16,120
- Market cap
- ₩173B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩132B | ₩128B | ₩121B | ₩117B | ₩112B | ₩110B | ₩111B | ₩114B |
| Growth | −11.7% | −2.4% | −5.6% | −6.6% | −4.2% | −1.8% | 0.6% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩25B | ₩21B | ₩17B | ₩23B | ₩22B | ₩22B | ₩22B | ₩23B |
| EBIT margin | 19.2% | 16.6% | 13.8% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 19.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩18B | ₩15B | ₩12B | ₩17B | ₩16B | ₩16B | ₩16B | ₩16B |
| + Depreciation | ₩1.9B | ₩2B | ₩2B | ₩1.8B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.6B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.7B |
| − Capital spending | ₩1.6B | ₩5.6B | ₩5B | ₩3.7B | ₩3.6B | ₩3.5B | ₩3.5B | ₩3.6B |
| − Working capital | −₩27B | ₩2.8B | −₩14B | ₩826M | ₩491M | ₩202M | −₩66M | −₩332M |
| Free cash flow | ₩45B | ₩9B | ₩23B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩15B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩13B | ₩12B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩10B |
Terminal value ₩317B, worth ₩223B today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩25,232 a share)Now 0.64× | ₩17,4500.69× | ₩27,1091.07× | ₩72,7312.88× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩9,279 a share)Now 1.74× | ₩17,6501.90× | ₩96,29910.4× | ₩149,29316.1× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,515 a share)Now 6.41× | ₩4,7841.90× | ₩26,10410.4× | ₩40,47016.1× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩48,546 | ₩50,970 | ₩53,957 | ₩57,730 | ₩62,645 |
| 6.8% | ₩46,177 | ₩48,152 | ₩50,539 | ₩53,481 | ₩57,196 |
| 7.3% | ₩44,185 | ₩45,821 | ₩47,766 | ₩50,117 | ₩53,014 |
| 7.8% | ₩42,486 | ₩43,861 | ₩45,472 | ₩47,388 | ₩49,703 |
| 8.3% | ₩41,022 | ₩42,190 | ₩43,543 | ₩45,130 | ₩47,017 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩173B
- Enterprise value
- −₩20B
- P/E
- 1.7×
- P/B
- 0.6×
- P/S
- 1.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 4.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩13,500 | ₩17,460 | ₩17,490 | ₩26,400 | ₩41,500 |
| Market cap | ₩145B | ₩187B | ₩188B | ₩283B | ₩445B |
| P/E | 1.6× | 15.2× | 10.1× | 9.7× | 14.0× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 1.0× | 1.1× | 1.6× | 2.9× |
| P/S | 1.2× | 1.5× | 1.4× | 1.9× | 3.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 5.6× | 5.1× | 6.3× | 11.0× |
| Dividend yield | 5.2% | 2.9% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saramin | 1.7× | 0.6× | 1.4× | — | 4.3% |
| NAVER | 13.1× | 0.9× | 2.1× | — | 1.5% |
| Kakao | 37.5× | 1.1× | 1.6× | — | 0.3% |
| Daou Technology | 1.9× | 0.4× | 0.0× | — | 5.4% |
| NICE Information Service | 11.6× | 2.1× | 1.6× | 6.8× | 3.0% |
| Kinx | 35.9× | 4.0× | 5.2× | 15.7× | 0.3% |
| Cafe24 | 11.3× | 1.5× | 1.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 12.4× | 1.3× | 1.6× | 6.8× | 0.9% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Saramin / 사람인 / 143240 / KRX:143240
Source: KRX statistical information