Nobland International노브랜드
145170 · KOSDAQ · ₩145170 · 노브랜드
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩11,233
vs the current price (₩2,525)
- Enterprise value
- ₩211B
- Equity value
- ₩190B
- WACC
- 6.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 345% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩2,525, the model needs an operating margin of 1.8% every year (it uses 2.9%).
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩11,233
- +344.9%
- Bull
- ₩41,489
- +1,543.1%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.9%).
Revenue growth
- 10.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (10.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (10.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 6.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (10.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (10.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (10.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 2 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 1.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 1.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 2 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 31.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 2 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.22, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩646B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩21B
- Shares
- 16,908,405
- Share price
- ₩2,525
- Market cap
- ₩43B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩546B | ₩602B | ₩712B | ₩771B | ₩822B | ₩862B | ₩887B |
| Growth | — | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩18B | ₩13B | ₩21B | ₩22B | ₩24B | ₩25B | ₩26B |
| EBIT margin | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩13B | ₩9.7B | ₩15B | ₩16B | ₩17B | ₩18B | ₩19B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | ₩8.5B | ₩9.3B | ₩9.9B | ₩10B | ₩11B |
| − Capital spending | ₩3.6B | ₩14B | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩13B | ₩13B |
| − Working capital | — | −₩8.9B | ₩21B | ₩19B | ₩16B | ₩12B | ₩8.1B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | −₩7.8B | −₩4.8B | −₩1.1B | ₩3.2B | ₩7.9B |
| Discount factor | — | — | 0.941 | 0.886 | 0.834 | 0.785 | 0.739 |
| Present value | — | — | −₩7.3B | −₩4.3B | −₩929M | ₩2.5B | ₩5.8B |
Terminal value ₩291B, worth ₩215B today: 102% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩9,578 a share)Now 0.26× | ₩2,7950.29× | ₩5,3190.56× | ₩7,6100.79× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2024, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | ₩14,773 | ₩15,307 | ₩15,988 | ₩16,895 | ₩18,181 |
| 5.7% | ₩12,710 | ₩12,972 | ₩13,287 | ₩13,682 | ₩14,198 |
| 6.2% | ₩11,049 | ₩11,138 | ₩11,233 | ₩11,338 | ₩11,456 |
| 6.7% | ₩9,685 | ₩9,661 | ₩9,620 | ₩9,555 | ₩9,456 |
| 7.2% | ₩8,546 | ₩8,449 | ₩8,321 | ₩8,155 | ₩7,935 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩43B
- Enterprise value
- ₩55B
- P/E
- 6.0×
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩3,980 | ₩7,480 |
| Market cap | ₩67B | ₩126B |
| P/E | 13.2× | — |
| P/B | 0.4× | 0.8× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Nobland International / 노브랜드 / 145170 / KRX:145170
Source: KRX statistical information