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Samyang

145990 · KOSPI · ₩145990 · 삼양사

₩42,150▼ ₩150 (0.35%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩93,653

vs the current price (₩42,150)

Enterprise value
₩1.3T
Equity value
₩1T
WACC
6.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 122% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩42,150, the model needs an operating margin of 2.7% every year (it uses 4.1%).
  • Or revenue growth −17.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩8,628
−79.5%
Base
₩93,653
+122.2%
Bull
₩258,676
+513.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.1%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 13.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩2.6T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩159B
+ Stakes and investments
₩49B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩180B
Shares
10,683,519
incl. 370,070 preferred
Share price
₩42,150
Market cap
₩446B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩2.7T₩2.7T₩2.6T₩2.6T₩2.6T₩2.6T₩2.6T₩2.7T
Growth−0.0%0.8%−4.1%−1.1%−0.1%0.9%2.0%3.0%
EBIT₩113B₩134B₩112B₩105B₩105B₩106B₩108B₩111B
EBIT margin4.3%5.0%4.4%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%
After-tax EBIT₩82B₩97B₩81B₩76B₩76B₩77B₩78B₩80B
+ Depreciation———₩79B₩79B₩80B₩81B₩84B
− Capital spending₩121B₩94B₩93B₩100B₩100B₩100B₩102B₩105B
− Working capital−₩204B₩118B−₩489B−₩3.9B−₩350M₩3.1B₩7.1B₩11B
Free cash flow———₩59B₩56B₩53B₩50B₩48B
Discount factor———0.9390.8820.8280.7770.730
Present value———₩56B₩49B₩44B₩39B₩35B

Terminal value ₩1.5T, worth ₩1.1T today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩153,673 a share)Now 0.27×₩42,4470.28×₩49,9730.33×₩67,0120.44×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩11,845 a share)Now 3.56×₩49,9754.22×₩59,9135.06×₩117,0089.88×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.5%₩103,956₩114,904₩128,938₩147,601₩173,666
6.0%₩90,408₩98,724₩109,085₩122,367₩140,027
6.5%₩79,335₩85,791₩93,653₩103,446₩115,999
7.0%₩70,119₩75,220₩81,315₩88,736₩97,981
7.5%₩62,331₩66,419₩71,228₩76,975₩83,970

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩435B
Enterprise value
₩594B
P/E
—
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.2%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩47,400₩47,600₩44,600₩38,550₩62,700
Market cap₩489B₩491B₩460B₩398B₩647B
P/E—4.0×4.3×5.8×15.7×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.3×0.3×0.5×
P/S0.2×0.2×0.2×0.1×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.7%3.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Samyang—0.3×0.2×—4.2%
Samyang Foods18.4×5.9×3.3×—0.4%
Orion10.5×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.5%
Nongshim12.0×0.8×0.7×—1.5%
Otoki16.9×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.0×0.9×0.4×6.3×4.5%
Similar companies (median)16.9×0.9×0.5×5.8×3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samyang / 삼양사 / 145990 / KRX:145990

Source: KRX statistical information