Cheryong Industrial제룡산업
147830 · KOSDAQ · ₩147830 · 제룡산업
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩5,819
vs the current price (₩6,280)
- Enterprise value
- ₩92B
- Equity value
- ₩116B
- WACC
- 7.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩4,414
- −29.7%
- Base
- ₩5,819
- −7.3%
- Bull
- ₩8,106
- +29.1%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (19.1%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 19.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 1.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.69
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.53, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩51B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩20B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩4B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 20,000,000
- Share price
- ₩6,280
- Market cap
- ₩126B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩41B | ₩29B | ₩38B | ₩46B | ₩43B | ₩41B | ₩41B | ₩42B |
| Growth | −31.0% | −28.3% | 29.3% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩5.6B | ₩4.1B | ₩11B | ₩8.7B | ₩8.1B | ₩7.9B | ₩7.8B | ₩8.1B |
| EBIT margin | 13.6% | 13.9% | 27.9% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩4B | ₩3B | ₩7.7B | ₩6.3B | ₩5.9B | ₩5.7B | ₩5.7B | ₩5.9B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩411M | ₩383M | ₩370M | ₩369M | ₩380M |
| − Capital spending | ₩281M | ₩504M | ₩431M | ₩548M | ₩511M | ₩493M | ₩492M | ₩507M |
| − Working capital | ₩9.4B | ₩4.2B | ₩2.9B | −₩2B | −₩1.2B | −₩597M | −₩33M | ₩492M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩8.2B | ₩7B | ₩6.2B | ₩5.6B | ₩5.2B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.928 | 0.860 | 0.798 | 0.740 | 0.687 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩7.6B | ₩6B | ₩4.9B | ₩4.1B | ₩3.6B |
Terminal value ₩96B, worth ₩66B today: 72% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩4,760 a share)Now 1.32× | ₩4,3430.91× | ₩6,2671.32× | ₩8,3981.76× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩889 a share)Now 7.06× | ₩6,6687.50× | ₩12,06513.6× | ₩18,72721.1× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩834 a share)Now 7.53× | ₩6,2547.50× | ₩11,31713.6× | ₩17,56621.1× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | ₩6,082 | ₩6,376 | ₩6,731 | ₩7,167 | ₩7,718 |
| 7.3% | ₩5,709 | ₩5,949 | ₩6,232 | ₩6,574 | ₩6,995 |
| 7.8% | ₩5,392 | ₩5,589 | ₩5,819 | ₩6,093 | ₩6,422 |
| 8.3% | ₩5,118 | ₩5,282 | ₩5,472 | ₩5,694 | ₩5,957 |
| 8.8% | ₩4,878 | ₩5,017 | ₩5,175 | ₩5,357 | ₩5,571 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩126B
- Enterprise value
- ₩106B
- P/E
- 7.1×
- P/B
- 1.3×
- P/S
- 2.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 4.8%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩6,160 | ₩5,500 | ₩3,610 | ₩3,200 | ₩3,685 |
| Market cap | ₩123B | ₩110B | ₩72B | ₩64B | ₩74B |
| P/E | 10.7× | 17.6× | 9.9× | 7.0× | 9.8× |
| P/B | 1.4× | 1.4× | 0.9× | 0.9× | 1.1× |
| P/S | 3.2× | 3.8× | 1.8× | 1.1× | 2.0× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 4.9% | 3.6% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheryong Industrial | 7.1× | 1.3× | 2.5× | — | 4.8% |
| CS Wind | 372.3× | 1.3× | 0.6× | — | 2.6% |
| Hankuk Carbon | 7.8× | 1.2× | 0.9× | — | 2.1% |
| Taewoong | 63.8× | 0.8× | 1.3× | 20.4× | 0.0% |
| YG-1 | 5.3× | 0.8× | 0.5× | — | 1.8% |
| Bosung Power Technology | 18.9× | 2.1× | 1.8× | 8.6× | 0.0% |
| Hansun Engineering | 36.1× | 2.6× | 3.0× | 14.4× | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.5× | 1.2× | 1.1× | 14.4× | 0.9% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Cheryong Industrial / 제룡산업 / 147830 / KRX:147830
Source: KRX statistical information