Hironic하이로닉
149980 · KOSDAQ · ₩149980 · 하이로닉
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩4,982
vs the current price (₩3,860)
- Enterprise value
- ₩65B
- Equity value
- ₩86B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩3,588
- −7.1%
- Base
- ₩4,982
- +29.1%
- Bull
- ₩7,365
- +90.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (13.5%).
Revenue growth
- 5.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 13.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 4.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 5.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.21, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩37B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩21B
- − Minority interests
- ₩46M
- Shares
- 17,199,046
- Share price
- ₩3,860
- Market cap
- ₩66B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩34B | ₩32B | ₩32B | ₩39B | ₩41B | ₩42B | ₩44B | ₩45B |
| Growth | 22.4% | −6.2% | 1.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩5.3B | −₩4.8B | ₩4.1B | ₩5.3B | ₩5.5B | ₩5.7B | ₩5.9B | ₩6.1B |
| EBIT margin | 15.6% | −15.0% | 12.8% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩3.8B | −₩3.4B | ₩3B | ₩3.8B | ₩4B | ₩4.2B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.4B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.6B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.8B | ₩1.8B | ₩1.9B |
| − Capital spending | ₩878M | ₩1.9B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.1B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.3B | ₩2.3B | ₩2.4B |
| − Working capital | −₩12B | −₩5.1B | ₩5.4B | ₩772M | ₩718M | ₩669M | ₩595M | ₩528M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩2.6B | ₩2.8B | ₩3B | ₩3.2B | ₩3.4B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩2.4B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.4B |
Terminal value ₩75B, worth ₩52B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩4,595 a share)Now 0.84× | ₩9,8322.14× | ₩12,6992.76× | ₩18,5154.03× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩263 a share)Now 14.7× | ₩4,57417.4× | ₩6,69725.4× | ₩10,42039.6× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩182 a share)Now 21.2× | ₩3,16317.4× | ₩4,63125.4× | ₩7,20639.6× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩5,264 | ₩5,545 | ₩5,889 | ₩6,323 | ₩6,888 |
| 6.8% | ₩4,899 | ₩5,121 | ₩5,388 | ₩5,717 | ₩6,130 |
| 7.3% | ₩4,592 | ₩4,770 | ₩4,982 | ₩5,236 | ₩5,549 |
| 7.8% | ₩4,330 | ₩4,476 | ₩4,646 | ₩4,847 | ₩5,089 |
| 8.3% | ₩4,105 | ₩4,225 | ₩4,363 | ₩4,525 | ₩4,716 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩66B
- Enterprise value
- ₩45B
- P/E
- 14.7×
- P/B
- 0.8×
- P/S
- 1.8×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩8,680 | ₩10,744 | ₩13,513 | ₩11,352 | ₩10,859 |
| Market cap | ₩149B | ₩185B | ₩232B | ₩195B | ₩187B |
| P/E | 47.2× | — | 28.3× | 66.5× | 27.6× |
| P/B | 2.4× | 2.6× | 3.2× | 3.3× | 3.3× |
| P/S | 4.7× | 5.8× | 6.9× | 7.1× | 8.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hironic | 14.7× | 0.8× | 1.8× | — | 0.0% |
| TSE | 27.5× | 6.1× | 5.1× | — | 0.2% |
| Kctech | 22.1× | 3.4× | 4.1× | 17.1× | 0.5% |
| Classys | 12.7× | 3.2× | 4.7× | 9.9× | 3.7% |
| Park Systems | 69.0× | 4.7× | 8.2× | — | 0.2% |
| DI | 42.2× | 5.8× | 2.6× | — | 0.6% |
| Curiox Biosystems | — | 21.3× | 182.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.5× | 5.3× | 4.9× | 13.5× | 0.3% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Hironic / 하이로닉 / 149980 / KRX:149980
Source: KRX statistical information