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Aekyung Chemical

161000 · KOSPI · ₩161000 · 애경케미칼

₩10,010▼ ₩370 (3.56%)End-of-day · Oct 26, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
₩331B
Equity value
−₩3.7B
WACC
5.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩10,010, the model needs an operating margin of 4.5% every year (it uses 2.5%).
  • Or revenue growth +39.6 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 24.4× against a typical 24.4× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
₩19,192
+91.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.5%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 6.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 15.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.27, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.6T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩511B
+ Stakes and investments
₩178B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩1.9B
Shares
48,648,709
Share price
₩10,010
Market cap
₩487B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.8T₩1.6T₩1.5T₩1.4T₩1.3T₩1.3T₩1.3T₩1.3T
Growth−17.6%−8.4%−11.6%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩45B₩15B−₩10B₩36B₩33B₩32B₩32B₩33B
EBIT margin2.5%0.9%−0.7%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
After-tax EBIT₩33B₩11B−₩7.4B₩26B₩24B₩23B₩23B₩24B
+ Depreciation———₩77B₩72B₩69B₩69B₩71B
− Capital spending₩85B₩138B₩105B₩97B₩90B₩87B₩87B₩89B
− Working capital₩25B−₩25B₩11B−₩25B−₩15B−₩7.4B−₩407M₩6.1B
Free cash flow———₩31B₩21B₩13B₩5.7B−₩666M
Discount factor———0.9470.8960.8480.8030.760
Present value———₩29B₩18B₩11B₩4.6B−₩506M

Terminal value ₩353B, worth ₩268B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩15,014 a share)Now 0.67×₩8,4370.56×₩11,0680.74×₩15,9981.07×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩410 a share)Now 24.4×₩2,2875.58×₩10,01024.4×₩19,32347.1×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,347 a share)Now 7.43×₩7,5105.58×₩32,86524.4×₩63,44347.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.6%₩1,112₩1,662₩2,413₩3,510₩5,268
5.1%₩154₩508₩969₩1,600₩2,518
5.6%———₩300₩814
6.1%—————
6.6%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩487B
Enterprise value
₩991B
P/E
24.4×
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
1.4%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩9,500₩6,830₩15,350₩8,870₩10,850
Market cap₩462B₩332B₩747B₩432B₩528B
P/E—83.5×22.6×7.2×6.8×
P/B0.6×0.5×1.0×0.6×0.8×
P/S0.3×0.2×0.4×0.2×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.5%4.1%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Aekyung Chemical24.4×0.7×0.3×—1.4%
LG Chem—0.4×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.6×0.4×—0.0%
Hanwha6.1×0.4×0.1×—1.2%
SKC—2.0×1.9×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×8.6×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.1×0.4×0.4×—1.7%
Similar companies (median)5.1×0.4×0.4×8.6×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Aekyung Chemical / 애경케미칼 / 161000 / KRX:161000

Source: KRX statistical information