Shin Steel

162300 · KOSDAQ · ₩162300 · 신스틸

₩1,794▼ ₩31 (1.70%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,429

vs the current price (₩1,794)

Enterprise value
₩131B
Equity value
₩59B
WACC
5.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩1,429
−20.3%
Bull
₩7,857
+338.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.5%).

Revenue growth

  • -2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 21.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩362B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩72B
+ Stakes and investments
₩799M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
41,471,382
Share price
₩1,794
Market cap
₩74B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩324B₩387B₩352B₩352B₩348B₩349B₩354B₩365B
Growth−15.0%19.4%−8.9%−2.6%−1.2%0.2%1.6%3.0%
EBIT₩13B₩10B₩3B₩8.8B₩8.7B₩8.7B₩8.9B₩9.1B
EBIT margin4.0%2.7%0.9%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
After-tax EBIT₩9.5B₩7.6B₩2.2B₩6.4B₩6.3B₩6.3B₩6.4B₩6.6B
+ Depreciation———₩0₩0₩0₩0₩0
− Capital spending₩0——₩0₩0₩0₩0₩0
− Working capital−₩2.5B−₩2.8B−₩5.2B−₩2.1B−₩922M₩152M₩1.2B₩2.3B
Free cash flow———₩8.4B₩7.2B₩6.2B₩5.2B₩4.3B
Discount factor———0.9460.8940.8460.8000.757
Present value———₩8B₩6.5B₩5.2B₩4.2B₩3.3B

Terminal value ₩137B, worth ₩104B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,063 a share)Now 0.87×₩1,7940.87×₩2,6511.28×₩4,6222.24×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩29 a share)Now 62.9×₩41814.7×₩70024.5×₩1,64757.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.7%₩1,953₩2,196₩2,526₩3,000₩3,743
5.2%₩1,527₩1,686₩1,893₩2,172₩2,573
5.7%₩1,191₩1,297₩1,429₩1,600₩1,831
6.2%₩919₩989₩1,074₩1,180₩1,317
6.7%₩695₩740₩794₩859₩940

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩74B
Enterprise value
₩147B
P/E
62.9×
P/B
0.9×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
1.2%

Over time (at each year end)

2025202420232022
Price₩1,763₩2,640₩2,985₩8,730
Market cap₩73B₩109B₩124B₩362B
P/E54.7×16.8×19.3×61.5×
P/B0.9×1.4×1.7×5.8×
P/S0.2×0.3×0.4×1.0×
EV/EBITDA————
Dividend yield1.2%0.8%——

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Shin Steel62.9×0.9×0.2×—1.2%
POSCO Holdings16.2×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.6%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.1×0.7×0.3×5.9×2.9%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.2×0.5×0.3×9.5×4.0%
Sama Aluminium—4.1×3.0×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)14.2×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Shin Steel / 신스틸 / 162300 / KRX:162300

Source: KRX statistical information