Pavonine파버나인
177830 · KOSDAQ · ₩177830 · 파버나인
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩1,564
vs the current price (₩2,040)
- Enterprise value
- ₩63B
- Equity value
- ₩18B
- WACC
- 5.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩1,564
- −23.3%
- Bull
- ₩15,127
- +641.5%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.5%).
Revenue growth
- 3.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 3.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 7.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 23.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩134B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩48B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩2.3B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 11,325,993
- Share price
- ₩2,040
- Market cap
- ₩23B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩121B | ₩133B | ₩133B | ₩139B | ₩144B | ₩149B | ₩154B | ₩158B |
| Growth | 2.2% | 10.1% | −0.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩1.7B | ₩8.1B | ₩2.6B | ₩4.9B | ₩5B | ₩5.2B | ₩5.4B | ₩5.5B |
| EBIT margin | 1.4% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩1.2B | ₩5.9B | ₩1.9B | ₩3.5B | ₩3.7B | ₩3.8B | ₩3.9B | ₩4B |
| + Depreciation | ₩7.9B | ₩7.6B | ₩8.4B | ₩8.6B | ₩8.9B | ₩9.2B | ₩9.5B | ₩9.8B |
| − Capital spending | ₩5.9B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩9.9B | ₩10B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B |
| − Working capital | −₩11B | ₩3.4B | ₩1.4B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.1B |
| Free cash flow | ₩14B | −₩385M | −₩2.4B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.3B | ₩1.4B | ₩1.5B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.951 | 0.904 | 0.860 | 0.818 | 0.778 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩1B | ₩1B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.2B |
Terminal value ₩74B, worth ₩58B today: 91% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩6,479 a share)Now 0.31× | ₩2,6240.41× | ₩3,3450.52× | ₩4,4990.69× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | ₩2,628 | ₩3,316 | ₩4,317 | ₩5,915 | ₩8,887 |
| 4.7% | ₩1,652 | ₩2,087 | ₩2,680 | ₩3,543 | ₩4,920 |
| 5.2% | ₩913 | ₩1,196 | ₩1,564 | ₩2,067 | ₩2,797 |
| 5.7% | ₩334 | ₩521 | ₩755 | ₩1,060 | ₩1,475 |
| 6.2% | — | — | ₩142 | ₩329 | ₩572 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩23B
- Enterprise value
- ₩71B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.0×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩2,870 | ₩3,025 | ₩3,450 | ₩3,730 | ₩4,685 |
| Market cap | ₩33B | ₩34B | ₩39B | ₩42B | ₩53B |
| P/E | — | 4.7× | 267.9× | 5.8× | 7.6× |
| P/B | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.5× | 0.7× |
| P/S | 0.2× | 0.3× | 0.3× | 0.4× | 0.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0× | 4.9× | 7.3× | 4.2× | 5.8× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavonine | — | 0.3× | 0.2× | 8.0× | 0.0% |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | 89.0× | 8.8× | 7.2× | — | 0.2% |
| Doosan | 36.8× | 5.2× | 0.7× | — | 0.4% |
| Hanwha Systems | 67.9× | 2.7× | 2.9× | — | 0.8% |
| LG Innotek | 13.4× | 1.4× | 0.4× | — | 0.5% |
| Isupetasys | 32.5× | 7.6× | 5.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Daeduck Electronics | 41.5× | 6.5× | 4.7× | — | 0.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 39.2× | 5.8× | 3.8× | — | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Pavonine / 파버나인 / 177830 / KRX:177830
Source: KRX statistical information