Sanigen세니젠
188260 · KOSDAQ · ₩188260 · 세니젠
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩13B
- Equity value
- −₩11B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩1,923, the model needs an operating margin of 37.6% every year (it uses −20.0%).
- Margins ranged from −38.1% to −28.5% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -20%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 5.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 25.4%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.12, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩6.2B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩2.4B
- Shares
- 13,901,318
- Share price
- ₩1,923
- Market cap
- ₩27B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩20B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩5.6B | ₩5.2B | ₩5.1B | ₩5B | ₩5.2B |
| Growth | — | −23.6% | −0.5% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩6.5B | −₩5.9B | −₩4.4B | −₩1.1B | −₩1B | −₩1B | −₩1B | −₩1B |
| EBIT margin | −32.1% | −38.1% | −28.5% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩4.7B | −₩4.3B | −₩3.2B | −₩814M | −₩759M | −₩732M | −₩731M | −₩753M |
| + Depreciation | ₩935M | ₩935M | ₩920M | ₩314M | ₩293M | ₩283M | ₩282M | ₩291M |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩224M | ₩209M | ₩202M | ₩202M | ₩208M |
| − Working capital | — | −₩9.2B | −₩739M | −₩158M | −₩95M | −₩47M | −₩2.6M | ₩38M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩565M | −₩580M | −₩605M | −₩648M | −₩708M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩526M | −₩503M | −₩488M | −₩487M | −₩495M |
Terminal value −₩15B, worth −₩11B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩822 a share)Now 2.34× | ₩2,5943.16× | ₩3,0543.72× | ₩9,54611.6× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2024, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩27B
- Enterprise value
- ₩24B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 2.3×
- P/S
- 4.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,923 | ₩2,555 | ₩4,150 |
| Market cap | ₩27B | ₩36B | ₩58B |
| P/E | — | — | — |
| P/B | 10.8× | 4.3× | 4.3× |
| P/S | 1.7× | 2.3× | 2.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanigen | — | 2.3× | 4.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Spigen Korea | 3.3× | 0.3× | 0.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Novatech | 3.5× | 0.7× | 2.5× | — | 0.0% |
| Samick Musical Instruments | 2.3× | 0.3× | 0.4× | — | 4.8% |
| Alux | — | 1.9× | 1.1× | — | 0.0% |
| E-World | — | 0.3× | 0.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Xplus | — | 2.5× | 4.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 3.3× | 0.5× | 0.9× | — | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Sanigen / 세니젠 / 188260 / KRX:188260
Source: KRX statistical information