Forcs

189690 · KOSDAQ · ₩189690 · 포시에스

₩1,489▲ ₩6 (0.40%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩3,528

vs the current price (₩1,489)

Enterprise value
₩69B
Equity value
₩96B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 137% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,489, the model needs an operating margin of 4.2% every year (it uses 15.8%).
  • Margins ranged from 13.4% to 22.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 9.0× against a typical 12.1× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩2,631
+76.7%
Base
₩3,528
+136.9%
Bull
₩5,021
+237.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (15.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 3.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 15.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 22.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.17, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (FY 2025)
₩33B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩22B
+ Stakes and investments
₩4.8B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩27M
Shares
27,321,969
Share price
₩1,489
Market cap
₩41B

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩33B₩31B₩33B₩34B₩35B₩36B₩38B₩39B
Growth12.3%−5.9%5.1%3.6%3.4%3.3%3.1%3.0%
EBIT₩5.2B₩4.5B₩4.4B₩5.4B₩5.6B₩5.8B₩5.9B₩6.1B
EBIT margin15.5%14.4%13.4%15.8%15.8%15.8%15.8%15.8%
After-tax EBIT₩3.7B₩3.3B₩3.2B₩3.9B₩4B₩4.2B₩4.3B₩4.4B
+ Depreciation———₩1B₩1.1B₩1.1B₩1.1B₩1.2B
− Capital spending₩2.8B₩434M₩504M₩1.3B₩1.3B₩1.4B₩1.4B₩1.5B
− Working capital₩871M−₩14B₩1.4B₩270M₩264M₩265M₩257M₩257M
Free cash flow———₩3.4B₩3.5B₩3.6B₩3.7B₩3.9B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———₩3.1B₩3B₩2.9B₩2.8B₩2.7B

Terminal value ₩78B, worth ₩55B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,750 a share)Now 0.54×₩1,9250.70×₩2,5380.92×₩3,2601.19×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩166 a share)Now 8.95×₩1,6039.64×₩2,01012.1×₩2,91617.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q4 2025 × 4: ₩736 a share)Now 2.02×₩7,0949.64×₩8,89412.1×₩12,90417.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩3,663₩3,868₩4,120₩4,436₩4,845
6.9%₩3,429₩3,595₩3,794₩4,038₩4,344
7.4%₩3,232₩3,368₩3,528₩3,721₩3,958
7.9%₩3,064₩3,177₩3,308₩3,463₩3,651
8.4%₩2,919₩3,013₩3,122₩3,250₩3,400

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩41B
Enterprise value
₩19B
P/E
9.0×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
1.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.4%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,110₩1,994₩2,520₩2,232₩2,684
Market cap₩58B₩54B₩69B₩61B₩73B
P/E12.7×11.5×13.2×9.3×17.2×
P/B0.8×0.7×1.0×0.9×1.2×
P/S1.8×1.7×2.1×2.1×3.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.4%2.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Forcs9.0×0.5×1.2×—3.4%
Hyundai Autoever47.8×4.8×2.0×—0.6%
Krafton10.0×1.2×1.9×—1.2%
NC7.0×1.2×2.1×8.4×0.6%
Netmarble7.1×0.5×1.0×—2.6%
PearlAbyss8.0×2.1×3.0×5.2×0.0%
Shift UP9.0×1.8×7.2×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)8.5×1.5×2.0×6.8×0.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Forcs / 포시에스 / 189690 / KRX:189690

Source: KRX statistical information