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Hyungkuk F&B

189980 · KOSDAQ · ₩189980 · 흥국에프엔비

₩1,071▼ ₩20 (1.83%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩2,944

vs the current price (₩1,071)

Enterprise value
₩124B
Equity value
₩118B
WACC
6.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 175% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,071, the model needs an operating margin of 4.9% every year (it uses 9.6%).
  • Or revenue growth −27.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 9.7× against a typical 10.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,549
+44.7%
Base
₩2,944
+174.9%
Bull
₩5,549
+418.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (9.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 9.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 6.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 8.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 26.2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.11, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩97B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩17B
+ Stakes and investments
₩14B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩2.8B
Shares
40,137,827
Share price
₩1,071
Market cap
₩43B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩101B₩103B₩99B₩97B₩99B₩100B₩103B₩106B
Growth4.0%1.5%−3.2%0.7%1.3%1.9%2.4%3.0%
EBIT₩10B₩11B₩8.5B₩9.3B₩9.5B₩9.6B₩9.9B₩10B
EBIT margin10.1%10.5%8.6%9.6%9.6%9.6%9.6%9.6%
After-tax EBIT₩7.4B₩7.8B₩6.2B₩6.8B₩6.9B₩7B₩7.2B₩7.4B
+ Depreciation———₩6.3B₩6.4B₩6.5B₩6.7B₩6.9B
− Capital spending₩7.4B₩4.3B₩13B₩7.9B₩8B₩8.1B₩8.3B₩8.6B
− Working capital₩5.6B−₩14B₩25B₩177M₩331M₩491M₩632M₩809M
Free cash flow———₩5B₩5B₩4.9B₩4.9B₩4.9B
Discount factor———0.9400.8830.8290.7790.732
Present value———₩4.7B₩4.4B₩4.1B₩3.8B₩3.6B

Terminal value ₩141B, worth ₩103B today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,532 a share)Now 0.42×₩1,6550.65×₩2,3270.92×₩5,1042.02×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩110 a share)Now 9.73×₩9018.19×₩1,16610.6×₩1,57014.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩47 a share)Now 22.7×₩3868.19×₩49910.6×₩67214.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.4%₩3,177₩3,479₩3,867₩4,387₩5,120
5.9%₩2,829₩3,059₩3,347₩3,718₩4,215
6.4%₩2,545₩2,725₩2,944₩3,219₩3,574
6.9%₩2,309₩2,452₩2,624₩2,833₩3,095
7.4%₩2,110₩2,226₩2,362₩2,526₩2,725

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩43B
Enterprise value
₩59B
P/E
9.7×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.4×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
12.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,610₩1,620₩2,005₩2,670₩3,800
Market cap₩65B₩65B₩80B₩107B₩153B
P/E8.3×12.7×9.4×9.0×24.1×
P/B0.7×0.7×0.8×1.2×2.0×
P/S0.7×0.6×0.8×1.1×2.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield8.1%4.3%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hyungkuk F&B9.7×0.4×0.4×—12.1%
Samyang Foods18.4×5.9×3.3×—0.4%
Orion10.5×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.5%
Nongshim12.0×0.8×0.7×—1.5%
Otoki16.9×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.0×0.9×0.4×6.3×4.5%
Similar companies (median)16.9×0.9×0.5×5.8×3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hyungkuk F&B / 흥국에프엔비 / 189980 / KRX:189980

Source: KRX statistical information