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Namuga

190510 · KOSDAQ · ₩190510 · 나무가

₩17,090▲ ₩3,940 (29.96%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩24,532

vs the current price (₩17,090)

Enterprise value
₩240B
Equity value
₩346B
WACC
7.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 44% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩17,090, the model needs an operating margin of 3.2% every year (it uses 5.4%).
  • Or revenue growth −17.0 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • 36% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 12.4× against a typical 8.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩15,623
−8.6%
Base
₩24,532
+43.5%
Bull
₩40,139
+134.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.4%).

Revenue growth

  • -4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 5.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 14.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.62

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.43, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩400B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩102B
+ Stakes and investments
₩3.3B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
14,085,317
Share price
₩17,090
Market cap
₩241B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩366B₩450B₩460B₩384B₩375B₩374B₩378B₩390B
Growth−29.6%23.2%2.1%−4.0%−2.2%−0.5%1.3%3.0%
EBIT₩23B₩21B₩28B₩21B₩20B₩20B₩20B₩21B
EBIT margin6.2%4.7%6.1%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%
After-tax EBIT₩16B₩15B₩20B₩15B₩15B₩15B₩15B₩15B
+ Depreciation———₩1.9B₩1.9B₩1.9B₩1.9B₩1.9B
− Capital spending₩512M₩3.1B₩5.2B₩2.3B₩2.3B₩2.2B₩2.3B₩2.3B
− Working capital₩70B−₩11B−₩41B−₩2.3B−₩1.2B−₩265M₩685M₩1.6B
Free cash flow———₩17B₩16B₩15B₩14B₩13B
Discount factor———0.9300.8650.8050.7480.696
Present value———₩16B₩13B₩12B₩10B₩9.2B

Terminal value ₩258B, worth ₩180B today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩12,388 a share)Now 1.38×₩13,5061.09×₩17,9361.45×₩27,2352.20×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,376 a share)Now 12.4×₩8,6076.26×₩11,6848.49×₩16,70212.1×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩648 a share)Now 26.4×₩4,0566.26×₩5,5068.49×₩7,87112.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.5%₩25,643₩26,801₩28,211₩29,970₩32,224
7.0%₩24,152₩25,079₩26,189₩27,540₩29,225
7.5%₩22,890₩23,644₩24,532₩25,594₩26,889
8.0%₩21,807₩22,428₩23,150₩24,000₩25,017
8.5%₩20,869₩21,386₩21,980₩22,670₩23,484

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩241B
Enterprise value
₩134B
P/E
12.4×
P/B
1.4×
P/S
0.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩17,450₩13,220₩14,100₩17,200₩13,300
Market cap₩246B₩186B₩199B₩242B₩187B
P/E9.8×7.1×8.4×7.7×11.7×
P/B1.4×1.1×1.4×1.9×3.3×
P/S0.5×0.4×0.5×0.5×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield4.2%4.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Namuga12.4×1.4×0.6×—4.3%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics89.0×8.8×7.2×—0.2%
Doosan36.8×5.2×0.7×—0.4%
Hanwha Systems67.9×2.7×2.9×—0.8%
LG Innotek13.4×1.4×0.4×—0.5%
Isupetasys32.5×7.6×5.0×—0.0%
Daeduck Electronics41.5×6.5×4.7×—0.4%
Similar companies (median)39.2×5.8×3.8×—0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Namuga / 나무가 / 190510 / KRX:190510

Source: KRX statistical information