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Novarex

194700 · KOSDAQ · ₩194700 · 노바렉스

₩9,070▼ ₩30 (0.33%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩37,478

vs the current price (₩9,070)

Enterprise value
₩663B
Equity value
₩684B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 313% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩9,070, the model needs an operating margin of 3.1% every year (it uses 9.7%).
  • Today's P/E is 3.9× against a typical 8.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩21,971
+142.2%
Base
₩37,478
+313.2%
Bull
₩64,001
+605.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (9.7%).

Revenue growth

  • 12.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 10.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 9.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 21.2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩436B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩15B
+ Stakes and investments
₩6B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
18,254,848
Share price
₩9,070
Market cap
₩166B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩301B₩296B₩403B₩492B₩543B₩586B₩619B₩637B
Growth7.3%−1.7%36.1%12.8%10.4%7.9%5.5%3.0%
EBIT₩26B₩22B₩42B₩48B₩53B₩57B₩60B₩62B
EBIT margin8.5%7.3%10.4%9.7%9.7%9.7%9.7%9.7%
After-tax EBIT₩19B₩16B₩30B₩35B₩38B₩41B₩44B₩45B
+ Depreciation———₩10B₩11B₩12B₩13B₩13B
− Capital spending₩8.7B₩6.8B₩10B₩13B₩14B₩15B₩16B₩17B
− Working capital₩3.8B₩14B₩29B₩12B₩11B₩9.1B₩6.8B₩3.9B
Free cash flow———₩20B₩25B₩29B₩34B₩38B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7530.702
Present value———₩19B₩21B₩24B₩25B₩26B

Terminal value ₩780B, worth ₩548B today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩14,698 a share)Now 0.62×₩10,8510.74×₩15,3431.04×₩34,7632.37×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩2,341 a share)Now 3.87×₩15,2376.51×₩19,5078.33×₩31,38413.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,681 a share)Now 5.40×₩10,9416.51×₩14,0078.33×₩22,53513.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩39,829₩42,760₩46,362₩50,896₩56,784
6.8%₩36,294₩38,636₩41,458₩44,925₩49,289
7.3%₩33,321₩35,224₩37,478₩40,193₩43,529
7.8%₩30,788₩32,354₩34,184₩36,352₩38,964
8.3%₩28,603₩29,907₩31,413₩33,173₩35,258

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩166B
Enterprise value
₩149B
P/E
3.9×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.4×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.4%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩14,000₩7,500₩12,140₩10,150₩20,324
Market cap₩256B₩137B₩222B₩185B₩371B
P/E7.3×6.1×10.0×9.2×14.0×
P/B1.0×0.6×1.1×1.0×2.7×
P/S0.6×0.5×0.7×0.7×1.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.9%2.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Novarex3.9×0.6×0.4×—4.4%
Samyang Foods17.5×5.6×3.1×—0.4%
Orion10.5×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.6%
Nongshim12.1×0.8×0.7×—1.5%
Otoki16.9×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.3×1.0×0.4×6.4×4.5%
Similar companies (median)16.9×0.9×0.6×5.8×3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Novarex / 노바렉스 / 194700 / KRX:194700

Source: KRX statistical information