Haesung DS해성디에스
195870 · KOSPI · ₩195870 · 해성디에스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩24,797
vs the current price (₩44,650)
- Enterprise value
- ₩551B
- Equity value
- ₩422B
- WACC
- 9.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 44% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩44,650, the model needs an operating margin of 17.2% every year (it uses 11.9%).
- Or revenue growth +13.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩907B, operating profit ₩106B (11.7% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
- Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩1T, operating profit ₩151B (14.5% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
- Margins ranged from 7.1% to 24.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- Today's P/E is 14.2× against a typical 8.9× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩12,330
- −72.4%
- Base
- ₩24,797
- −44.5%
- Bull
- ₩44,750
- +0.2%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (11.9%).
Revenue growth
- -8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -5.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -2.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 11.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 15.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 19.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 22.8%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 1.05
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.08, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩758B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩130B
- Shares
- 17,000,000
- Share price
- ₩44,650
- Market cap
- ₩759B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩672B | ₩603B | ₩653B | ₩698B | ₩661B | ₩644B | ₩645B | ₩665B |
| Growth | −19.9% | −10.3% | 8.4% | −8.0% | −5.3% | −2.5% | 0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩103B | ₩57B | ₩46B | ₩83B | ₩79B | ₩77B | ₩77B | ₩79B |
| EBIT margin | 15.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩74B | ₩41B | ₩34B | ₩60B | ₩57B | ₩56B | ₩56B | ₩57B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩110B | ₩104B | ₩102B | ₩102B | ₩105B |
| − Capital spending | ₩98B | ₩159B | ₩120B | ₩138B | ₩131B | ₩128B | ₩128B | ₩132B |
| − Working capital | −₩47B | ₩17B | ₩59B | −₩14B | −₩8.4B | −₩3.8B | ₩294M | ₩4.4B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩46B | ₩39B | ₩34B | ₩30B | ₩26B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.917 | 0.841 | 0.771 | 0.708 | 0.649 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩42B | ₩33B | ₩26B | ₩21B | ₩17B |
Terminal value ₩635B, worth ₩412B today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩33,993 a share)Now 1.31× | ₩26,3850.78× | ₩57,7911.70× | ₩102,5983.02× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩3,152 a share)Now 14.2× | ₩15,6824.98× | ₩28,1688.94× | ₩110,89235.2× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩4,489 a share)Now 9.95× | ₩22,3354.98× | ₩40,1198.94× | ₩157,94035.2× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | ₩26,757 | ₩28,416 | ₩30,346 | ₩32,618 | ₩35,337 |
| 8.5% | ₩24,376 | ₩25,763 | ₩27,357 | ₩29,210 | ₩31,393 |
| 9.0% | ₩22,296 | ₩23,465 | ₩24,797 | ₩26,327 | ₩28,107 |
| 9.5% | ₩20,464 | ₩21,458 | ₩22,580 | ₩23,857 | ₩25,326 |
| 10.0% | ₩18,837 | ₩19,688 | ₩20,642 | ₩21,718 | ₩22,944 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩759B
- Enterprise value
- ₩889B
- P/E
- 14.2×
- P/B
- 1.3×
- P/S
- 1.0×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 2.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩55,700 | ₩23,400 | ₩55,400 | ₩35,850 | ₩48,850 |
| Market cap | ₩947B | ₩398B | ₩942B | ₩609B | ₩830B |
| P/E | 39.8× | 6.8× | 11.2× | 3.8× | 11.7× |
| P/B | 1.7× | 0.7× | 1.8× | 1.4× | 2.8× |
| P/S | 1.4× | 0.7× | 1.4× | 0.7× | 1.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.6% | 3.4% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haesung DS | 14.2× | 1.3× | 1.0× | — | 2.0% |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | 89.0× | 8.8× | 7.2× | — | 0.2% |
| Doosan | 36.8× | 5.2× | 0.7× | — | 0.4% |
| Hanwha Systems | 67.9× | 2.7× | 2.9× | — | 0.8% |
| LG Innotek | 13.4× | 1.4× | 0.4× | — | 0.5% |
| Isupetasys | 32.5× | 7.6× | 5.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Daeduck Electronics | 41.5× | 6.5× | 4.7× | — | 0.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 39.2× | 5.8× | 3.8× | — | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Haesung DS / 해성디에스 / 195870 / KRX:195870
Source: KRX statistical information