CoAsia CM코아시아씨엠
196450 · KOSDAQ · ₩196450 · 코아시아씨엠
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩77B
- Equity value
- −₩105B
- WACC
- 6.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩3,455, the model needs an operating margin of 2.2% every year (it uses −1.8%).
- Margins ranged from −7.4% to 2.0% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- 76% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−1.8%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -1.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 1.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 11.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.14, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩244B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩23B
- − Minority interests
- ₩5.9B
- Shares
- 9,064,000
- Share price
- ₩3,455
- Market cap
- ₩31B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩294B | ₩267B | ₩258B | ₩219B | ₩205B | ₩197B | ₩197B | ₩203B |
| Growth | −23.3% | −9.1% | −3.4% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩13B | −₩9.5B | ₩5.3B | −₩3.9B | −₩3.7B | −₩3.6B | −₩3.5B | −₩3.7B |
| EBIT margin | −4.4% | −3.6% | 2.0% | −1.8% | −1.8% | −1.8% | −1.8% | −1.8% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩9.5B | −₩6.9B | ₩3.8B | −₩2.9B | −₩2.7B | −₩2.6B | −₩2.6B | −₩2.6B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩3.7B | ₩3.5B | ₩3.4B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.5B |
| − Capital spending | ₩7.6B | ₩4.5B | ₩5.3B | ₩4.6B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.3B |
| − Working capital | ₩4.5B | ₩20B | −₩16B | −₩2.8B | −₩1.7B | −₩809M | −₩45M | ₩668M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩986M | −₩1.8B | −₩2.6B | −₩3.3B | −₩4.1B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.944 | 0.890 | 0.840 | 0.793 | 0.748 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩930M | −₩1.6B | −₩2.1B | −₩2.6B | −₩3.1B |
Terminal value −₩88B, worth −₩66B today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩7,293 a share)Now 0.47× | ₩3,8670.53× | ₩5,9720.82× | ₩8,8341.21× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩31B
- Enterprise value
- ₩52B
- P/E
- 2.4×
- P/B
- 0.5×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩3,815 | ₩3,630 | ₩6,850 | ₩7,225 | ₩11,650 |
| Market cap | ₩35B | ₩33B | ₩62B | ₩65B | ₩106B |
| P/E | 40.2× | — | — | — | — |
| P/B | 0.6× | 0.6× | 0.9× | 0.9× | 1.4× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: CoAsia CM / 코아시아씨엠 / 196450 / KRX:196450
Source: KRX statistical information