KNR Systems케이엔알시스템
199430 · KOSDAQ · ₩199430 · 케이엔알시스템
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩33B
- Equity value
- −₩38B
- WACC
- 8.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- Margins ranged from −45.6% to −18.6% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-14.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-14.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-14.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-14.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-14.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -20%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- -6.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.79
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.69, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩18B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩4.4B
- Shares
- 11,217,713
- Share price
- ₩13,970
- Market cap
- ₩157B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩21B | ₩18B | ₩16B | ₩16B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩15B |
| Growth | — | −14.5% | −14.1% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩4B | −₩7.4B | −₩7.2B | −₩3.2B | −₩3B | −₩2.9B | −₩2.9B | −₩3B |
| EBIT margin | −18.6% | −40.2% | −45.6% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩2.9B | −₩5.4B | −₩5.2B | −₩2.4B | −₩2.2B | −₩2.1B | −₩2.1B | −₩2.2B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩487M | ₩454M | ₩439M | ₩438M | ₩451M |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩650M | ₩606M | ₩585M | ₩584M | ₩601M |
| − Working capital | — | ₩5.7B | −₩3.3B | ₩110M | ₩66M | ₩32M | ₩1.8M | −₩27M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩2.6B | −₩2.4B | −₩2.3B | −₩2.3B | −₩2.3B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.923 | 0.852 | 0.787 | 0.727 | 0.671 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩2.4B | −₩2.1B | −₩1.8B | −₩1.6B | −₩1.5B |
Terminal value −₩36B, worth −₩24B today: 72% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩2,126 a share)Now 6.57× | ₩5,8382.75× | ₩9,5524.49× | ₩28,00313.2× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2024, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩157B
- Enterprise value
- ₩161B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 6.6×
- P/S
- 8.7×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩27,100 | ₩6,800 |
| Market cap | ₩304B | ₩76B |
| P/E | — | — |
| P/B | 12.5× | 2.5× |
| P/S | 19.3× | 4.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — |
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Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: KNR Systems / 케이엔알시스템 / 199430 / KRX:199430
Source: KRX statistical information