Ask Warren

HL Mando

204320 · KOSPI · ₩204320 · HL만도

₩37,650▲ ₩950 (2.59%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩72,932

vs the current price (₩37,650)

Enterprise value
₩3.9T
Equity value
₩3.4T
WACC
7.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 94% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩37,650, the model needs an operating margin of 2.6% every year (it uses 3.7%).
  • Or revenue growth −17.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 10.5× against a typical 17.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩6,400
−83.0%
Base
₩72,932
+93.7%
Bull
₩191,184
+407.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.7%).

Revenue growth

  • 7.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 10.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.8

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.71, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩9.6T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩392B
+ Stakes and investments
₩111B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩177B
Shares
46,957,120
Share price
₩37,650
Market cap
₩1.8T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩8.4T₩8.8T₩9.5T₩10T₩11T₩12T₩12T₩13T
Growth11.7%5.4%6.9%7.9%6.7%5.5%4.2%3.0%
EBIT₩279B₩359B₩357B₩383B₩409B₩431B₩449B₩463B
EBIT margin3.3%4.1%3.8%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%
After-tax EBIT₩202B₩260B₩259B₩278B₩296B₩312B₩326B₩335B
+ Depreciation———₩362B₩386B₩408B₩425B₩438B
− Capital spending₩413B₩360B₩390B₩455B₩486B₩513B₩534B₩550B
− Working capital−₩81B₩63B−₩222B₩82B₩75B₩66B₩53B₩39B
Free cash flow———₩103B₩122B₩142B₩164B₩184B
Discount factor———0.9290.8630.8020.7450.692
Present value———₩95B₩105B₩114B₩122B₩127B

Terminal value ₩4.8T, worth ₩3.3T today: 85% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩62,646 a share)Now 0.60×₩42,5410.68×₩53,1680.85×₩77,4331.24×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩3,600 a share)Now 10.5×₩32,3208.98×₩61,20017.0×₩304,92184.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩4,570 a share)Now 8.24×₩41,0218.98×₩77,67617.0×₩387,01584.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.6%₩79,683₩85,551₩92,664₩101,474₩112,683
7.1%₩71,578₩76,256₩81,826₩88,577₩96,937
7.6%₩64,715₩68,496₩72,932₩78,213₩84,613
8.1%₩58,830₩61,924₩65,506₩69,707₩74,709
8.6%₩53,732₩56,288₩59,215₩62,605₩66,579

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.8T
Enterprise value
₩2.1T
P/E
10.5×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩58,700₩40,650₩39,350₩40,300₩63,400
Market cap₩2.8T₩1.9T₩1.8T₩1.9T₩3T
P/E27.6×14.7×13.6×19.3×17.8×
P/B1.0×0.8×0.8×0.8×1.5×
P/S0.3×0.2×0.2×0.3×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.3%1.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
HL Mando10.5×0.6×0.2×—2.0%
Hyundai Mobis8.2×0.6×0.5×—2.0%
SL6.0×0.8×0.4×3.7×0.0%
Samhyun—13.0×18.3×—0.0%
Hyundai WIA19.0×0.4×0.2×—2.4%
SNT Dynamics13.6×0.7×0.9×—6.7%
SNT Motiv6.9×0.6×0.6×—7.1%
Similar companies (median)8.2×0.6×0.5×3.7×2.2%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: HL Mando / HL만도 / 204320 / KRX:204320

Source: KRX statistical information