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DUK SAN Neolux

213420 · KOSDAQ · ₩213420 · 덕산네오룩스

₩23,200▼ ₩1,000 (4.13%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩74,318

vs the current price (₩23,200)

Enterprise value
₩1.8T
Equity value
₩1.8T
WACC
7.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 220% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩23,200, the model needs an operating margin of 8.1% every year (it uses 22.4%).
  • Margins ranged from 17.6% to 26.6% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 8.1× against a typical 22.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩51,042
+120.0%
Base
₩74,318
+220.3%
Bull
₩112,047
+383.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (22.4%).

Revenue growth

  • 24.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 22.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 6.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 7.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 28.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.63

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.44, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩393B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩103B
+ Stakes and investments
₩9.9B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩20B
Shares
24,831,179
Share price
₩23,200
Market cap
₩576B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩164B₩212B₩344B₩491B₩586B₩668B₩725B₩746B
Growth−7.3%29.7%62.2%24.9%19.4%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT₩33B₩52B₩61B₩110B₩131B₩150B₩162B₩167B
EBIT margin20.1%24.7%17.6%22.4%22.4%22.4%22.4%22.4%
After-tax EBIT₩24B₩38B₩44B₩80B₩95B₩108B₩118B₩121B
+ Depreciation———₩30B₩36B₩41B₩45B₩46B
− Capital spending₩16B₩20B₩14B₩38B₩46B₩52B₩57B₩58B
− Working capital−₩890M−₩11B₩130B₩28B₩27B₩23B₩16B₩6.2B
Free cash flow———₩44B₩59B₩75B₩90B₩103B
Discount factor———0.9300.8660.8060.7500.697
Present value———₩41B₩51B₩60B₩67B₩72B

Terminal value ₩2.1T, worth ₩1.5T today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩19,656 a share)Now 1.18×₩34,2501.74×₩54,4202.77×₩73,8433.76×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩2,872 a share)Now 8.08×₩42,07614.7×₩63,15222.0×₩91,23331.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,136 a share)Now 7.40×₩45,94114.7×₩68,95322.0×₩99,61331.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.5%₩78,041₩83,997₩91,278₩100,383₩112,101
7.0%₩71,332₩76,154₩81,939₩89,012₩97,857
7.5%₩65,668₩69,633₩74,318₩79,938₩86,808
8.0%₩60,826₩64,129₩67,980₩72,530₩77,990
8.5%₩56,638₩59,422₩62,630₩66,371₩70,791

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩576B
Enterprise value
₩473B
P/E
8.1×
P/B
1.2×
P/S
1.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩36,500₩27,750₩44,500₩39,100₩56,300
Market cap₩906B₩689B₩1.1T₩971B₩1.4T
P/E17.0×15.1×30.9×24.9×29.8×
P/B2.0×1.7×3.1×3.0×4.9×
P/S2.6×3.2×6.7×5.5×7.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
DUK SAN Neolux8.1×1.2×1.5×—0.0%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics88.7×8.7×7.2×—0.2%
Doosan34.5×4.9×0.6×—0.4%
Hanwha Systems65.1×2.5×2.8×—0.8%
LG Innotek11.6×1.2×0.3×—0.6%
Isupetasys30.8×7.2×4.7×—0.0%
Daeduck Electronics38.8×6.0×4.4×—0.4%
Similar companies (median)36.6×5.5×3.6×—0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: DUK SAN Neolux / 덕산네오룩스 / 213420 / KRX:213420

Source: KRX statistical information