Ask Warren

Hansol Paper

213500 · KOSPI · ₩213500 · 한솔제지

₩6,810▼ ₩20 (0.29%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩15,047

vs the current price (₩6,810)

Enterprise value
₩1.2T
Equity value
₩358B
WACC
4.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 121% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩6,810, the model needs an operating margin of 2.4% every year (it uses 2.7%).
  • Or revenue growth −5.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 7.3× against a typical 8.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩15,047
+121.0%
Bull
₩157,852
+2,217.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.7%).

Revenue growth

  • -2.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 15.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩2.3T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩860B
+ Stakes and investments
₩15B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩422M
Shares
23,800,576
Share price
₩6,810
Market cap
₩162B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩2.2T₩2.2T₩2.3T₩2.2T₩2.2T₩2.2T₩2.3T₩2.3T
Growth−10.7%1.0%3.4%−2.3%−1.0%0.3%1.7%3.0%
EBIT₩47B₩22B₩50B₩61B₩60B₩60B₩61B₩63B
EBIT margin2.2%1.0%2.2%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%
After-tax EBIT₩34B₩16B₩36B₩44B₩44B₩44B₩44B₩46B
+ Depreciation———₩52B₩51B₩51B₩52B₩54B
− Capital spending₩69B₩45B₩77B₩65B₩65B₩65B₩66B₩68B
− Working capital−₩197B₩46B₩6.1B−₩8.1B−₩3.4B₩1B₩5.8B₩10B
Free cash flow———₩39B₩34B₩29B₩25B₩21B
Discount factor———0.9570.9150.8750.8370.801
Present value———₩37B₩31B₩26B₩21B₩17B

Terminal value ₩1.3T, worth ₩1.1T today: 89% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩30,465 a share)Now 0.22×₩8,2730.27×₩10,3320.34×₩15,0900.50×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩928 a share)Now 7.34×₩4,2544.59×₩7,6608.26×₩60,63165.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩5,036 a share)Now 1.35×₩23,0904.59×₩41,5798.26×₩329,11265.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.5%₩21,975₩31,861₩48,141₩80,068₩171,397
4.0%₩12,345₩18,452₩27,528₩42,472₩71,774
4.5%₩5,444₩9,465₩15,047₩23,341₩36,994
5.0%₩259₩3,024₩6,681₩11,757₩19,295
5.5%——₩684₩3,990₩8,576

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩162B
Enterprise value
₩1T
P/E
7.3×
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
7.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩8,310₩8,610₩10,640₩13,250₩13,500
Market cap₩198B₩205B₩253B₩315B₩321B
P/E50.9×—144.0×4.3×23.5×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.3×0.4×0.5×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield6.0%5.8%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hansol Paper7.3×0.2×0.1×—7.3%
SM Kukil—3.2×6.1×—0.0%
Shindaeyang Paper9.9×0.5×0.5×—2.8%
Dongwha Enterprise—0.4×0.3×—0.0%
Asia Paper Manufacturing10.5×0.3×0.3×—2.8%
Sambo Corrugated Board4.5×0.2×0.2×—2.4%
Moorim P&P—0.2×0.1×—7.8%
Similar companies (median)9.9×0.3×0.3×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hansol Paper / 한솔제지 / 213500 / KRX:213500

Source: KRX statistical information