Ask Warren

Neptune

217270 · KOSDAQ · ₩217270 · 넵튠

₩2,045▼ ₩105 (4.88%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩534B
Equity value
−₩513B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,045, the model needs an operating margin of 2.7% every year (it uses −20.0%).
  • Margins ranged from −121.3% to 7.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 25%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (60.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (60.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (60.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (60.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (60.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -1.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.14, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩115B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩21B
Shares
45,654,357
Share price
₩2,045
Market cap
₩93B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩100B₩122B₩123B₩143B₩171B₩195B₩212B₩218B
Growth238.5%21.9%0.8%25.0%19.5%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT₩2.2B₩9.6B₩2.5B−₩29B−₩34B−₩39B−₩42B−₩44B
EBIT margin2.2%7.9%2.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT₩1.6B₩7B₩1.8B−₩21B−₩25B−₩28B−₩31B−₩32B
+ Depreciation———₩574M₩686M₩782M₩848M₩874M
− Capital spending₩501M₩183M₩1.1B₩717M₩857M₩977M₩1.1B₩1.1B
− Working capital₩2B₩2B−₩14B−₩488M−₩476M−₩408M−₩282M−₩108M
Free cash flow———−₩20B−₩25B−₩28B−₩31B−₩32B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7530.702
Present value———−₩19B−₩21B−₩23B−₩23B−₩22B

Terminal value −₩606B, worth −₩426B today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩6,944 a share)Now 0.29×₩4,0290.58×₩5,7680.83×₩14,7952.13×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%—————
6.8%—————
7.3%—————
7.8%—————
8.3%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩93B
Enterprise value
₩58B
P/E
—
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩5,130₩5,440₩6,890₩10,500₩28,000
Market cap₩234B₩248B₩315B₩479B₩1.3T
P/E—127.7×——18.3×
P/B0.7×0.7×0.9×1.2×3.3×
P/S1.9×2.0×3.2×16.3×63.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Neptune—0.3×0.8×—0.0%
Hyundai Autoever46.8×4.7×2.0×—0.6%
Krafton10.0×1.2×1.9×—1.2%
NC6.9×1.2×2.0×8.3×0.6%
Netmarble7.1×0.5×1.0×—2.6%
PearlAbyss7.9×2.0×3.0×5.1×0.0%
Shift UP9.0×1.8×7.1×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)8.4×1.5×2.0×6.7×0.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Neptune / 넵튠 / 217270 / KRX:217270

Source: KRX statistical information