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Zgoo Holdings

221800 · KOSDAQ · ₩221800 · 지구홀딩스

₩3,530▼ ₩70 (1.94%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩24B
Equity value
−₩2.2B
WACC
9.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,530, the model needs an operating margin of 15.1% every year (it uses −9.3%).
  • Margins ranged from −12.5% to −4.3% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−9.3%).

Revenue growth

  • -8.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-8.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -5.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-8.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-8.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-8.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-8.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -9.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 6.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 1.01

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.01, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩32B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩13B
+ Stakes and investments
₩11B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩2.7B
Shares
16,318,851
Share price
₩3,530
Market cap
₩58B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩31B₩25B₩26B₩29B₩28B₩27B₩27B₩28B
Growth—−18.7%2.2%−8.8%−5.9%−2.9%0.0%3.0%
EBIT−₩1.3B−₩3.1B−₩2.4B−₩2.7B−₩2.6B−₩2.5B−₩2.5B−₩2.6B
EBIT margin−4.3%−12.5%−9.2%−9.3%−9.3%−9.3%−9.3%−9.3%
After-tax EBIT−₩970M−₩2.3B−₩1.7B−₩2B−₩1.9B−₩1.8B−₩1.8B−₩1.9B
+ Depreciation———₩410M₩386M₩375M₩375M₩386M
− Capital spending₩978M₩353M₩201M₩528M₩496M₩482M₩482M₩497M
− Working capital—₩1.4B₩1.1B−₩181M−₩111M−₩51M₩0₩51M
Free cash flow———−₩1.9B−₩1.9B−₩1.9B−₩1.9B−₩2B
Discount factor———0.9120.8320.7580.6910.631
Present value———−₩1.7B−₩1.5B−₩1.4B−₩1.3B−₩1.3B

Terminal value −₩26B, worth −₩16B today: 69% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,530 a share)Now 1.00×₩4,2051.19×₩5,5421.57×₩11,6123.29×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2024, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
8.7%—————
9.2%—————
9.7%—————
10.2%₩68₩14———
10.7%₩132₩84₩31——

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩58B
Enterprise value
₩42B
P/E
—
P/B
1.0×
P/S
1.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.8%

Over time (at each year end)

202520242023
Price₩3,920₩2,665₩5,280
Market cap₩64B₩43B₩86B
P/E——133.4×
P/B1.5×1.3×2.3×
P/S2.5×1.7×2.8×
EV/EBITDA———
Dividend yield2.6%——

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Zgoo Holdings—1.0×1.8×—2.8%
Samsung E&A19.0×2.5×1.3×—1.2%
HD Hyundai Marine Solution23.4×8.8×3.6×—2.3%
KEPCO Engineering & Construction102.2×6.2×6.9×50.8×1.4%
POSCO DX94.1×5.3×3.1×—0.0%
Hanyang ENG7.7×0.7×0.4×3.8×0.0%
SemiFive—2.2×4.0×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)23.4×3.9×3.3×27.3×0.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Zgoo Holdings / 지구홀딩스 / 221800 / KRX:221800

Source: KRX statistical information