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Hizeaero

221840 · KOSDAQ · ₩221840 · 하이즈항공

₩1,939▼ ₩20 (1.02%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩178B
Equity value
−₩234B
WACC
5.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,939, the model needs an operating margin of 5.6% every year (it uses −4.3%).
  • Margins ranged from −19.3% to 5.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−4.3%).

Revenue growth

  • 12.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 10.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (12.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -4.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 6.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 36.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.16, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩94B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩52B
+ Stakes and investments
₩878M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩4.3B
Shares
18,700,561
Share price
₩1,939
Market cap
₩36B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩81B₩87B₩85B₩106B₩117B₩126B₩133B₩137B
Growth37.4%7.2%−2.2%12.9%10.4%8.0%5.5%3.0%
EBIT−₩4.5B−₩2.2B₩4.6B−₩4.6B−₩5B−₩5.4B−₩5.7B−₩5.9B
EBIT margin−5.6%−2.6%5.4%−4.3%−4.3%−4.3%−4.3%−4.3%
After-tax EBIT−₩3.3B−₩1.6B₩3.3B−₩3.3B−₩3.6B−₩3.9B−₩4.2B−₩4.3B
+ Depreciation₩3.8B₩4B₩3.4B₩4.8B₩5.3B₩5.7B₩6B₩6.2B
− Capital spending₩5.1B₩7.8B₩2.8B₩6.6B₩7.3B₩7.8B₩8.3B₩8.5B
− Working capital−₩5.5B−₩2.7B₩1.4B₩4.4B₩4B₩3.4B₩2.5B₩1.5B
Free cash flow₩870M−₩2.7B₩2.6B−₩9.5B−₩9.7B−₩9.5B−₩9B−₩8.1B
Discount factor———0.9490.9010.8550.8120.771
Present value———−₩9B−₩8.7B−₩8.1B−₩7.3B−₩6.2B

Terminal value −₩180B, worth −₩139B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,551 a share)Now 0.55×₩2,3200.65×₩3,4360.97×₩4,8141.36×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.3%—————
4.8%—————
5.3%—————
5.8%—————
6.3%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩36B
Enterprise value
₩89B
P/E
9.3×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.4×
EV/EBITDA
9.7×
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,195₩1,493₩2,745₩2,970₩4,570
Market cap₩41B₩28B₩51B₩56B₩85B
P/E19.9×————
P/B1.0×0.8×1.1×1.0×1.4×
P/S0.5×0.3×0.6×0.9×1.4×
EV/EBITDA10.4×41.3×———
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hizeaero9.3×0.5×0.4×9.7×0.0%
Hanwha Aerospace17.8×3.0×1.2×—1.0%
Korea Aerospace Industries53.8×5.0×2.2×—0.5%
LIG Defense&Aerospace31.9×5.7×1.9×—0.7%
Satrec Initiative65.0×2.5×2.9×38.5×0.2%
Firstec16.4×2.7×0.7×—0.0%
Samyang Comtech7.8×1.3×1.5×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)24.9×2.8×1.7×38.5×0.3%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hizeaero / 하이즈항공 / 221840 / KRX:221840

Source: KRX statistical information