SFA NexelSFA넥셀
222080 · KOSDAQ · ₩222080 · SFA넥셀
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩7,643
vs the current price (₩7,460)
- Enterprise value
- ₩442B
- Equity value
- ₩594B
- WACC
- 8.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩5,113
- −31.5%
- Base
- ₩7,643
- +2.5%
- Bull
- ₩11,779
- +57.9%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.8%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 10.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 33.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.76
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.64, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩292B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩152B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩5.5M
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 77,780,144
- Share price
- ₩7,460
- Market cap
- ₩580B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩308B | ₩508B | ₩406B | ₩365B | ₩436B | ₩497B | ₩539B | ₩555B |
| Growth | 95.7% | 65.2% | −20.1% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩40B | ₩60B | ₩34B | ₩39B | ₩47B | ₩54B | ₩58B | ₩60B |
| EBIT margin | 13.2% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩29B | ₩43B | ₩24B | ₩29B | ₩34B | ₩39B | ₩42B | ₩43B |
| + Depreciation | ₩1.4B | ₩2.5B | ₩6.2B | ₩2.9B | ₩3.5B | ₩4B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.4B |
| − Capital spending | ₩11B | ₩37B | ₩5.2B | ₩15B | ₩17B | ₩20B | ₩22B | ₩22B |
| − Working capital | ₩109B | ₩87B | −₩47B | ₩24B | ₩24B | ₩20B | ₩14B | ₩5.4B |
| Free cash flow | −₩90B | −₩78B | ₩72B | −₩7.4B | −₩3.5B | ₩2.7B | ₩11B | ₩20B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.923 | 0.853 | 0.788 | 0.727 | 0.672 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩6.8B | −₩3B | ₩2.1B | ₩7.9B | ₩14B |
Terminal value ₩638B, worth ₩428B today: 97% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩6,857 a share)Now 1.09× | ₩7,5621.10× | ₩21,2543.10× | ₩68,61010.0× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩651 a share)Now 11.5× | ₩6,2639.62× | ₩12,86619.8× | ₩48,29574.2× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩373 a share)Now 20.0× | ₩3,5919.62× | ₩7,37719.8× | ₩27,68974.2× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | ₩8,128 | ₩8,530 | ₩9,007 | ₩9,581 | ₩10,288 |
| 7.8% | ₩7,554 | ₩7,882 | ₩8,265 | ₩8,718 | ₩9,264 |
| 8.3% | ₩7,062 | ₩7,332 | ₩7,643 | ₩8,007 | ₩8,438 |
| 8.8% | ₩6,636 | ₩6,860 | ₩7,116 | ₩7,412 | ₩7,757 |
| 9.3% | ₩6,263 | ₩6,451 | ₩6,664 | ₩6,907 | ₩7,187 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩580B
- Enterprise value
- ₩427B
- P/E
- 11.5×
- P/B
- 1.1×
- P/S
- 2.0×
- EV/EBITDA
- 11.8×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩6,650 | ₩7,400 | ₩11,000 | ₩9,000 | ₩14,400 |
| Market cap | ₩517B | ₩576B | ₩856B | ₩700B | ₩1.1T |
| P/E | 18.0× | 10.2× | 29.6× | 46.5× | — |
| P/B | 1.0× | 1.2× | 3.3× | 5.1× | 9.8× |
| P/S | 1.3× | 1.1× | 2.8× | 4.5× | 8.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9× | 7.2× | 19.2× | 67.0× | 63.9× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFA Nexel | 11.5× | 1.1× | 2.0× | 11.8× | 0.0% |
| Doosan Enerbility | 217.2× | 4.8× | 2.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanmi Semiconductor | 87.4× | 26.0× | 35.2× | 78.7× | 0.4% |
| Jusung Engineering | 1,189.7× | 14.6× | 38.2× | 2,291.7× | 0.0% |
| Rainbow Robotics | 4,610.6× | 59.1× | 174.0× | — | 0.0% |
| EO Technics | 47.5× | 6.9× | 11.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Wonik IPS | 28.2× | 4.5× | 5.3× | 42.7× | 0.2% |
| Similar companies (median) | 152.3× | 10.7× | 23.4× | 78.7× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: SFA Nexel / SFA넥셀 / 222080 / KRX:222080
Source: KRX statistical information