LK SamyangLK삼양
225190 · KOSDAQ · ₩225190 · LK삼양
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩40B
- Equity value
- −₩36B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩4,460, the model needs an operating margin of 32.4% every year (it uses −17.9%).
- Margins ranged from −78.7% to 21.2% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−17.9%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-27% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-27% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-27% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-27% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-27% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -17.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 11.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 14.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 29.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩19B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩3.8B
- Shares
- 14,093,688
- Share price
- ₩4,460
- Market cap
- ₩63B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩39B | ₩32B | ₩21B | ₩17B | ₩16B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩16B |
| Growth | −29.0% | −18.0% | −33.1% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩1.1B | −₩3.2B | −₩17B | −₩3B | −₩2.8B | −₩2.7B | −₩2.7B | −₩2.8B |
| EBIT margin | −2.9% | −10.1% | −78.7% | −17.9% | −17.9% | −17.9% | −17.9% | −17.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩819M | −₩2.3B | −₩12B | −₩2.2B | −₩2B | −₩2B | −₩2B | −₩2B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.9B | ₩1.8B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.8B |
| − Capital spending | ₩2.6B | ₩6B | ₩3.7B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.2B |
| − Working capital | ₩398M | ₩3.1B | −₩8.9B | −₩549M | −₩331M | −₩161M | −₩8.9M | ₩133M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩2.1B | −₩2.2B | −₩2.2B | −₩2.4B | −₩2.6B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩2B | −₩1.9B | −₩1.8B | −₩1.8B | −₩1.8B |
Terminal value −₩43B, worth −₩30B today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩1,991 a share)Now 2.24× | ₩7,3143.67× | ₩8,2534.15× | ₩10,7905.42× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩63B
- Enterprise value
- ₩55B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 2.2×
- P/S
- 3.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩6,825 | ₩11,714 | ₩8,515 | ₩8,930 | ₩9,326 |
| Market cap | ₩96B | ₩165B | ₩120B | ₩126B | ₩131B |
| P/E | — | — | 164.7× | 15.2× | 12.4× |
| P/B | 2.9× | 5.9× | 4.0× | 3.4× | 3.5× |
| P/S | 4.5× | 5.2× | 3.1× | 2.3× | 2.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 1.2% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: LK Samyang / LK삼양 / 225190 / KRX:225190
Source: KRX statistical information