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Kmpharmaceutical

225430 · KOSDAQ · ₩225430 · 케이엠제약

₩698 ₩0 (0.00%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩52B
Equity value
−₩62B
WACC
4.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩698, the model needs an operating margin of 3.4% every year (it uses −12.2%).
  • Margins ranged from −18.3% to 3.8% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−12.2%).

Revenue growth

  • 0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -12.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 7.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 1.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 2.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.21, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩17B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩12B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.3B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
6,485,675
Share price
₩698
Market cap
₩4.5B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩18B₩14B₩16B₩17B₩17B₩18B₩18B₩19B
Growth13.7%−18.5%10.5%0.8%1.3%1.9%2.4%3.0%
EBIT−₩1.1B−₩2.6B−₩2.9B−₩2.1B−₩2.1B−₩2.2B−₩2.2B−₩2.3B
EBIT margin−6.1%−17.7%−18.3%−12.2%−12.2%−12.2%−12.2%−12.2%
After-tax EBIT−₩791M−₩1.9B−₩2.1B−₩1.5B−₩1.5B−₩1.6B−₩1.6B−₩1.6B
+ Depreciation₩1.2B₩1.2B₩924M₩1.2B₩1.2B₩1.3B₩1.3B₩1.3B
− Capital spending₩113M₩369M₩262M₩274M₩277M₩283M₩289M₩298M
− Working capital−₩1.8B−₩32M−₩6B₩2.9M₩4.7M₩6.9M₩8.9M₩11M
Free cash flow₩2.2B−₩974M₩4.5B−₩575M−₩584M−₩598M−₩614M−₩635M
Discount factor———0.9530.9080.8660.8250.786
Present value———−₩548M−₩531M−₩517M−₩506M−₩499M

Terminal value −₩62B, worth −₩49B today: 95% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩4,112 a share)Now 0.17×₩2,1190.52×₩3,5340.86×₩6,4361.57×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.9%—————
4.4%—————
4.9%—————
5.4%—————
5.9%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩4.5B
Enterprise value
₩16B
P/E
—
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,690₩3,425₩4,890₩7,950₩11,125
Market cap₩17B₩22B₩32B₩52B₩72B
P/E—————
P/B0.6×0.7×0.9×1.4×1.8×
P/S1.1×1.5×1.8×3.3×3.2×
EV/EBITDA——279.0×729.2×36.2×
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Kmpharmaceutical—0.2×0.3×—0.0%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.5×0.3×—0.0%
Hanwha5.9×0.4×0.1×—1.5%
SKC—1.8×1.7×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×8.9×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.3×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.3×0.4×0.4×8.9×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kmpharmaceutical / 케이엠제약 / 225430 / KRX:225430

Source: KRX statistical information