Ask Warren

Osteonic

226400 · KOSDAQ · ₩226400 · 오스테오닉

₩4,060▼ ₩15 (0.37%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩6,788

vs the current price (₩4,060)

Enterprise value
₩156B
Equity value
₩141B
WACC
6.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 67% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩4,060, the model needs an operating margin of 12.7% every year (it uses 17.0%).
  • Or revenue growth −12.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from 3.7% to 20.1% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 33% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 8.3× against a typical 21.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩3,780
−6.9%
Base
₩6,788
+67.2%
Bull
₩12,055
+196.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (17.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 25%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (31.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (31.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (31.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (31.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (31.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 17%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 17.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 21.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.03, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩51B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩15B
− Minority interests
₩116M
Shares
20,768,101
Share price
₩4,060
Market cap
₩84B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩28B₩34B₩45B₩64B₩76B₩87B₩94B₩97B
Growth40.1%23.2%32.6%25.0%19.5%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT₩4.8B₩6.9B₩8.9B₩11B₩13B₩15B₩16B₩16B
EBIT margin17.4%20.1%19.5%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%
After-tax EBIT₩3.5B₩5B₩6.4B₩7.9B₩9.4B₩11B₩12B₩12B
+ Depreciation———₩11B₩13B₩15B₩16B₩17B
− Capital spending₩7B₩7.1B₩9B₩14B₩17B₩19B₩21B₩21B
− Working capital₩11B₩8.7B₩1.3B₩5.1B₩5B₩4.3B₩3B₩1.1B
Free cash flow———−₩48M₩1.1B₩2.6B₩4.5B₩6.6B
Discount factor———0.9360.8760.8210.7680.719
Present value———−₩45M₩933M₩2.1B₩3.5B₩4.7B

Terminal value ₩201B, worth ₩145B today: 93% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,464 a share)Now 1.17×₩5,0271.45×₩7,1072.05×₩8,3912.42×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩491 a share)Now 8.26×₩4,5259.21×₩10,33221.0×₩13,77528.0×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩351 a share)Now 11.6×₩3,2309.21×₩7,37521.0×₩9,83228.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.8%₩7,368₩8,116₩9,058₩10,282₩11,939
6.3%₩6,491₩7,073₩7,790₩8,692₩9,864
6.8%₩5,767₩6,230₩6,788₩7,473₩8,337
7.3%₩5,160₩5,534₩5,977₩6,510₩7,166
7.8%₩4,644₩4,950₩5,307₩5,731₩6,241

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩84B
Enterprise value
₩94B
P/E
8.3×
P/B
1.2×
P/S
1.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩6,220₩6,500₩4,820₩3,165₩3,565
Market cap₩129B₩135B₩100B₩66B₩74B
P/E17.2×23.9×27.4×78.7×—
P/B1.9×2.3×1.9×1.8×2.1×
P/S2.8×3.9×3.6×3.3×4.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Osteonic8.3×1.2×1.7×—0.0%
TSE23.5×5.2×4.3×—0.2%
Kctech19.8×3.0×3.6×15.3×0.5%
Classys12.4×3.1×4.6×9.7×3.8%
Park Systems66.3×4.5×7.9×—0.2%
DI37.8×5.2×2.3×—0.6%
LivsMed—6.1×19.4×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)23.5×4.8×4.5×12.5×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Osteonic / 오스테오닉 / 226400 / KRX:226400

Source: KRX statistical information