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Tongyang Pile

228340 · KOSDAQ · ₩228340 · 동양파일

₩2,780▼ ₩10 (0.36%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,289

vs the current price (₩2,780)

Enterprise value
₩14B
Equity value
₩26B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 54% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,780, the model needs an operating margin of 6.9% every year (it uses 2.6%).
  • Margins ranged from −8.5% to 11.8% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩773
−72.2%
Base
₩1,289
−53.6%
Bull
₩2,317
−16.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.6%).

Revenue growth

  • -8.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -5.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.12, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩64B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩12B
Shares
20,000,000
Share price
₩2,780
Market cap
₩56B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩71B₩57B₩56B₩59B₩55B₩54B₩54B₩56B
Growth−2.1%−20.4%−1.1%−8.3%−5.5%−2.7%0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩4.5B−₩4.4B−₩4.7B₩1.5B₩1.4B₩1.4B₩1.4B₩1.4B
EBIT margin6.3%−7.8%−8.5%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
After-tax EBIT₩3.3B−₩3.2B−₩3.4B₩1.1B₩1B₩1B₩1B₩1B
+ Depreciation———₩644M₩609M₩592M₩593M₩611M
− Capital spending₩1.3B₩924M₩342M₩820M₩775M₩754M₩755M₩778M
− Working capital−₩36B₩41B−₩50B−₩2.1B−₩1.3B−₩597M₩43M₩647M
Free cash flow———₩3B₩2.2B₩1.5B₩812M₩233M
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———₩2.8B₩1.9B₩1.2B₩610M₩163M

Terminal value ₩10B, worth ₩7.1B today: 52% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,967 a share)Now 0.47×₩1,7120.29×₩2,3860.40×₩4,4400.74×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩208 a share)Now 13.4×₩1,7008.18×₩2,16210.4×₩4,89423.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩1,461₩1,433₩1,397₩1,352₩1,292
6.9%₩1,402₩1,373₩1,338₩1,293₩1,236
7.4%₩1,353₩1,324₩1,289₩1,246₩1,193
7.9%₩1,310₩1,282₩1,248₩1,207₩1,158
8.4%₩1,273₩1,246₩1,213₩1,175₩1,129

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩56B
Enterprise value
₩43B
P/E
—
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.9×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,910₩1,762₩2,505₩3,070₩4,230
Market cap₩38B₩35B₩50B₩61B₩85B
P/E——9.7×12.5×35.5×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.4×0.5×0.7×
P/S0.7×0.6×0.7×0.8×1.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Tongyang Pile—0.5×0.9×—0.0%
Tokai Carbon Korea31.7×4.5×7.2×—0.7%
Hanilcementco11.9×0.7×0.9×—6.1%
Wonik QnC14.8×1.3×0.7×—0.5%
Sampyo Cement17.4×0.8×0.9×6.1×2.1%
Hanil Holdings9.4×0.3×0.3×—6.0%
IS Dongseo5.1×0.3×0.4×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)13.4×0.7×0.8×6.1×2.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Tongyang Pile / 동양파일 / 228340 / KRX:228340

Source: KRX statistical information