Ray레이
228670 · KOSDAQ · ₩228670 · 레이
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩50B
- Equity value
- −₩90B
- WACC
- 6.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩4,390, the model needs an operating margin of 7.2% every year (it uses −1.5%).
- Margins ranged from −55.4% to 12.6% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−1.5%).
Revenue growth
- -4.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -2.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -1.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.33, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩119B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩41B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩122M
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 15,640,021
- Share price
- ₩4,390
- Market cap
- ₩69B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩146B | ₩80B | ₩111B | ₩113B | ₩110B | ₩109B | ₩110B | ₩114B |
| Growth | 13.1% | −45.3% | 39.4% | −4.8% | −2.8% | −0.9% | 1.1% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩6.1B | −₩44B | −₩9.8B | −₩1.7B | −₩1.7B | −₩1.6B | −₩1.7B | −₩1.7B |
| EBIT margin | 4.2% | −55.4% | −8.8% | −1.5% | −1.5% | −1.5% | −1.5% | −1.5% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩4.4B | −₩32B | −₩7.1B | −₩1.2B | −₩1.2B | −₩1.2B | −₩1.2B | −₩1.2B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩2.7B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.7B | ₩2.7B |
| − Capital spending | ₩2.7B | ₩3.1B | ₩3.6B | ₩3.4B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.4B |
| − Working capital | −₩8.3B | ₩8.1B | −₩19B | −₩2.3B | −₩1.3B | −₩397M | ₩481M | ₩1.3B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩374M | −₩590M | −₩1.4B | −₩2.3B | −₩3.2B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.942 | 0.887 | 0.836 | 0.787 | 0.742 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩352M | −₩524M | −₩1.2B | −₩1.8B | −₩2.4B |
Terminal value −₩59B, worth −₩44B today: 89% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩5,198 a share)Now 0.84× | ₩4,6750.90× | ₩9,3621.80× | ₩21,2424.09× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩69B
- Enterprise value
- ₩105B
- P/E
- 7.1×
- P/B
- 0.8×
- P/S
- 0.6×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩6,770 | ₩5,820 | ₩22,850 | ₩23,900 | ₩28,350 |
| Market cap | ₩106B | ₩91B | ₩357B | ₩374B | ₩443B |
| P/E | 33.7× | — | — | 47.0× | — |
| P/B | 1.4× | 1.2× | 2.8× | 3.2× | 4.4× |
| P/S | 1.0× | 1.1× | 2.4× | 2.9× | 4.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Ray / 레이 / 228670 / KRX:228670
Source: KRX statistical information