MedPacto메드팩토
235980 · KOSDAQ · ₩235980 · 메드팩토
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩523
vs the current price (₩3,050)
- Enterprise value
- −₩16B
- Equity value
- ₩18B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 83% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩621
- −79.6%
- Base
- ₩523
- −82.8%
- Bull
- ₩386
- −87.4%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).
Revenue growth
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
Business
- -20%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 6.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩5B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩34B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩22M
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 34,275,121
- Share price
- ₩3,050
- Market cap
- ₩105B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩0 | ₩0 | ₩3.9B | ₩5.1B | ₩5.3B | ₩5.5B | ₩5.6B | ₩5.8B |
| Growth | — | — | — | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩29B | −₩22B | −₩14B | −₩1B | −₩1.1B | −₩1.1B | −₩1.1B | −₩1.2B |
| EBIT margin | — | — | −359.6% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩21B | −₩16B | −₩10B | −₩746M | −₩768M | −₩791M | −₩815M | −₩840M |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩257M | ₩265M | ₩273M | ₩281M | ₩290M |
| − Capital spending | ₩173M | ₩323M | ₩243M | ₩319M | ₩329M | ₩338M | ₩349M | ₩359M |
| − Working capital | −₩32B | ₩5.1B | ₩3.6B | ₩60M | ₩62M | ₩64M | ₩65M | ₩67M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩868M | −₩894M | −₩920M | −₩948M | −₩977M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩809M | −₩776M | −₩745M | −₩715M | −₩686M |
Terminal value −₩18B, worth −₩12B today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩1,152 a share)Now 2.65× | ₩2,6352.29× | ₩5,8685.09× | ₩40,83735.4× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩516 | ₩471 | ₩416 | ₩345 | ₩253 |
| 6.8% | ₩557 | ₩520 | ₩475 | ₩420 | ₩350 |
| 7.3% | ₩591 | ₩560 | ₩523 | ₩479 | ₩424 |
| 7.8% | ₩620 | ₩594 | ₩564 | ₩527 | ₩483 |
| 8.3% | ₩646 | ₩623 | ₩597 | ₩567 | ₩531 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩105B
- Enterprise value
- ₩71B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 2.6×
- P/S
- 20.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩6,680 | ₩4,435 | ₩7,240 | ₩19,519 | ₩51,408 |
| Market cap | ₩229B | ₩152B | ₩248B | ₩669B | ₩1.8T |
| P/E | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/B | 5.0× | 2.6× | 3.5× | 20.7× | 40.5× |
| P/S | 58.7× | — | — | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MedPacto | — | 2.6× | 20.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 34.7× | 8.2× | 15.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 28.2× | 2.5× | 9.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 76.3× | 27.5× | 58.0× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 15.2× | 6.0× | 7.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 23.3× | 2.3× | 2.4× | 30.4× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.5× | 54.7× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 28.2× | 7.1× | 12.1× | 30.4× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: MedPacto / 메드팩토 / 235980 / KRX:235980
Source: KRX statistical information