Aligned Genetics얼라인드
238120 · KOSDAQ · ₩238120 · 얼라인드
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩3,268
vs the current price (₩2,440)
- Enterprise value
- ₩40B
- Equity value
- ₩46B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩2,318
- −5.0%
- Base
- ₩3,268
- +34.0%
- Bull
- ₩4,859
- +99.1%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (18.1%).
Revenue growth
- 5.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 18.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.28, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩16B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩1B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩7.4B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 14,218,274
- Share price
- ₩2,440
- Market cap
- ₩35B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩15B | ₩16B | ₩16B | ₩17B | ₩18B | ₩19B | ₩19B | ₩20B |
| Growth | 10.6% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩3.3B | ₩2.8B | ₩2.4B | ₩3.1B | ₩3.2B | ₩3.4B | ₩3.5B | ₩3.6B |
| EBIT margin | 21.9% | 17.6% | 15.3% | 18.1% | 18.1% | 18.1% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩2.4B | ₩2B | ₩1.8B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.3B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.6B |
| + Depreciation | ₩596M | ₩548M | — | ₩629M | ₩659M | ₩686M | ₩710M | ₩732M |
| − Capital spending | ₩880M | ₩403M | — | ₩714M | ₩748M | ₩778M | ₩806M | ₩831M |
| − Working capital | −₩2.2B | ₩8.2B | −₩9.8B | ₩336M | ₩320M | ₩292M | ₩267M | ₩230M |
| Free cash flow | ₩4.3B | −₩6B | — | ₩1.8B | ₩1.9B | ₩2B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.3B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩1.7B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.6B | ₩1.6B |
Terminal value ₩45B, worth ₩32B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩2,757 a share)Now 0.88× | ₩3,5011.27× | ₩4,9291.79× | ₩6,4402.34× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩326 a share)Now 7.47× | ₩3,39910.4× | ₩4,84314.8× | ₩9,09227.8× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩492 a share)Now 4.96× | ₩5,12510.4× | ₩7,30114.8× | ₩13,70727.8× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩3,447 | ₩3,667 | ₩3,937 | ₩4,277 | ₩4,720 |
| 6.8% | ₩3,181 | ₩3,356 | ₩3,568 | ₩3,828 | ₩4,156 |
| 7.3% | ₩2,957 | ₩3,100 | ₩3,268 | ₩3,472 | ₩3,722 |
| 7.8% | ₩2,767 | ₩2,884 | ₩3,021 | ₩3,183 | ₩3,379 |
| 8.3% | ₩2,602 | ₩2,699 | ₩2,812 | ₩2,944 | ₩3,100 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩35B
- Enterprise value
- ₩35B
- P/E
- 7.5×
- P/B
- 0.9×
- P/S
- 2.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩3,870 | ₩3,025 | ₩4,030 | ₩3,765 | ₩4,285 |
| Market cap | ₩55B | ₩43B | ₩57B | ₩54B | ₩61B |
| P/E | 18.9× | 10.4× | 17.7× | 22.9× | 11.0× |
| P/B | 1.5× | 1.2× | 1.8× | 1.9× | 2.3× |
| P/S | 3.4× | 2.7× | 3.8× | 3.9× | 5.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 10.6× | 11.8× | 13.5× | 22.6× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Aligned Genetics / 얼라인드 / 238120 / KRX:238120
Source: KRX statistical information