PCL피씨엘
241820 · KOSDAQ · ₩241820 · 피씨엘
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩5.9B
- Equity value
- −₩13B
- WACC
- 11.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩6,040, the model needs an operating margin of 83.4% every year (it uses −20.0%).
- Margins ranged from −2,175.4% to −22.2% over the last 4 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
- The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-70% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-70% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-70% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-70% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-70% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -20%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 4.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 5.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 2
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 2.87, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to Q3 2025)
- ₩5B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩7.1B
- Shares
- 2,782,098
- Share price
- ₩6,040
- Market cap
- ₩17B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to Q3 2025" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩37B | ₩8.4B | ₩1.2B | ₩4.5B | ₩4.2B | ₩4B | ₩4B | ₩4.2B |
| Growth | −19.4% | −77.4% | −85.2% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩8.2B | −₩16B | −₩27B | −₩897M | −₩837M | −₩808M | −₩806M | −₩830M |
| EBIT margin | −22.2% | −191.4% | −2,175.4% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% | −20.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩6B | −₩12B | −₩20B | −₩650M | −₩607M | −₩585M | −₩584M | −₩602M |
| + Depreciation | ₩1.8B | — | — | ₩220M | ₩205M | ₩198M | ₩197M | ₩203M |
| − Capital spending | — | ₩57M | ₩135M | ₩260M | ₩243M | ₩234M | ₩234M | ₩241M |
| − Working capital | ₩16B | ₩5B | −₩14B | −₩199M | −₩120M | −₩59M | −₩3.2M | ₩48M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩491M | −₩524M | −₩563M | −₩617M | −₩688M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.894 | 0.800 | 0.715 | 0.639 | 0.572 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩439M | −₩419M | −₩403M | −₩395M | −₩393M |
Terminal value −₩6.8B, worth −₩3.9B today: 65% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩976 a share)Now 6.19× | ₩1,3371.37× | ₩6,0406.19× | ₩30,18330.9× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩17B
- Enterprise value
- ₩24B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 6.2×
- P/S
- 3.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩11,080 | ₩71,700 | ₩89,042 | ₩211,735 |
| Market cap | ₩31B | ₩199B | ₩248B | ₩589B |
| P/E | — | — | — | — |
| P/B | 4.3× | 5.6× | 7.8× | 40.5× |
| P/S | 24.7× | 23.7× | 6.7× | 12.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCL | — | 6.2× | 3.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.1× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.8× | 2.4× | 8.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 78.8× | 28.4× | 59.9× | — | 0.1% |
| Yuhan | 24.8× | 2.5× | 2.6× | 32.5× | 0.8% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.6× | 5.7× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| HLB | — | 15.4× | 54.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.8× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 32.5× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: PCL / 피씨엘 / 241820 / KRX:241820
Source: KRX statistical information