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IL Dong Pharmaceutical

249420 · KOSPI · ₩249420 · 일동제약

₩12,570▼ ₩220 (1.72%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩297B
Equity value
−₩367B
WACC
6.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩12,570, the model needs an operating margin of 6.1% every year (it uses −3.3%).
  • Margins ranged from −11.5% to 3.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 57% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−3.3%).

Revenue growth

  • -3.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -3.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.28, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩582B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩89B
+ Stakes and investments
₩19B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
31,638,252
Share price
₩12,570
Market cap
₩398B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩601B₩615B₩567B₩560B₩548B₩546B₩553B₩570B
Growth−5.8%2.4%−7.8%−3.8%−2.1%−0.4%1.3%3.0%
EBIT−₩54B₩13B₩19B−₩18B−₩18B−₩18B−₩18B−₩19B
EBIT margin−9.0%2.1%3.4%−3.3%−3.3%−3.3%−3.3%−3.3%
After-tax EBIT−₩39B₩9.5B₩14B−₩13B−₩13B−₩13B−₩13B−₩14B
+ Depreciation———₩12B₩12B₩12B₩12B₩13B
− Capital spending₩18B₩14B₩17B₩16B₩15B₩15B₩15B₩16B
− Working capital−₩276B₩216B−₩7.7B₩664M₩353M₩66M−₩213M−₩498M
Free cash flow———−₩17B−₩17B−₩16B−₩16B−₩17B
Discount factor———0.9370.8780.8230.7710.723
Present value———−₩16B−₩15B−₩14B−₩13B−₩12B

Terminal value −₩315B, worth −₩228B today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩8,153 a share)Now 1.54×₩17,8272.19×₩27,8373.41×₩43,1235.29×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.7%—————
6.2%—————
6.7%—————
7.2%—————
7.7%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩398B
Enterprise value
₩461B
P/E
9.1×
P/B
1.5×
P/S
0.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
1.6%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩38,500₩11,770₩18,160₩28,550₩33,600
Market cap₩1.2T₩372B₩575B₩903B₩1.1T
P/E44.0×————
P/B4.9×2.3×3.4×4.7×7.0×
P/S2.1×0.6×1.0×1.4×1.9×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.5%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
IL Dong Pharmaceutical9.1×1.5×0.7×—1.6%
Samsung Biologics31.9×7.6×13.9×—0.0%
Celltrion27.9×2.5×9.0×—0.0%
Alteogen79.4×28.6×60.3×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals15.2×6.0×7.1×—0.0%
Yuhan23.2×2.3×2.4×30.2×0.8%
HLB—15.4×54.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.9×6.8×11.4×30.2×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: IL Dong Pharmaceutical / 일동제약 / 249420 / KRX:249420

Source: KRX statistical information