Studio Dragon스튜디오드래곤
253450 · KOSDAQ · ₩253450 · 스튜디오드래곤
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩16,590
vs the current price (₩22,700)
- Enterprise value
- ₩513B
- Equity value
- ₩499B
- WACC
- 7.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩9,020
- −60.3%
- Base
- ₩16,590
- −26.9%
- Bull
- ₩29,726
- +31.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (8.0%).
Revenue growth
- -8.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -5.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -2.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 7.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩583B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩22B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩7.5B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 30,058,498
- Share price
- ₩22,700
- Market cap
- ₩682B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩753B | ₩550B | ₩531B | ₩532B | ₩501B | ₩487B | ₩487B | ₩502B |
| Growth | 7.9% | −27.0% | −3.5% | −8.7% | −5.8% | −2.9% | 0.1% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩56B | ₩36B | ₩30B | ₩43B | ₩40B | ₩39B | ₩39B | ₩40B |
| EBIT margin | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩41B | ₩26B | ₩22B | ₩31B | ₩29B | ₩28B | ₩28B | ₩29B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.6B | ₩1.5B | ₩1.5B | ₩1.5B | ₩1.5B |
| − Capital spending | ₩3.5B | ₩2.3B | ₩1B | ₩2.1B | ₩2B | ₩1.9B | ₩1.9B | ₩2B |
| − Working capital | ₩18B | −₩445M | −₩15B | −₩3.6B | −₩2.2B | −₩1B | ₩35M | ₩1B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩34B | ₩31B | ₩29B | ₩28B | ₩28B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.933 | 0.870 | 0.812 | 0.757 | 0.706 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩32B | ₩27B | ₩23B | ₩21B | ₩19B |
Terminal value ₩554B, worth ₩391B today: 76% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩25,900 a share)Now 0.88× | ₩33,9041.31× | ₩53,8892.08× | ₩94,9453.67× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,040 a share)Now 21.8× | ₩31,40530.2× | ₩42,96141.3× | ₩73,63470.8× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,732 a share)Now 13.1× | ₩52,32030.2× | ₩71,57341.3× | ₩122,67370.8× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | ₩17,357 | ₩18,791 | ₩20,563 | ₩22,814 | ₩25,765 |
| 6.7% | ₩15,816 | ₩16,969 | ₩18,366 | ₩20,094 | ₩22,288 |
| 7.2% | ₩14,522 | ₩15,466 | ₩16,590 | ₩17,952 | ₩19,637 |
| 7.7% | ₩13,422 | ₩14,205 | ₩15,125 | ₩16,221 | ₩17,549 |
| 8.2% | ₩12,474 | ₩13,132 | ₩13,896 | ₩14,793 | ₩15,861 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩682B
- Enterprise value
- ₩704B
- P/E
- 21.8×
- P/B
- 0.9×
- P/S
- 1.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩42,750 | ₩43,050 | ₩51,500 | ₩86,000 | ₩91,000 |
| Market cap | ₩1.3T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.5T | ₩2.6T | ₩2.7T |
| P/E | 124.5× | 38.6× | 51.5× | 51.1× | 70.0× |
| P/B | 1.6× | 1.7× | 2.2× | 3.9× | 4.0× |
| P/S | 2.4× | 2.4× | 2.1× | 3.7× | 5.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | 39.6× | 49.8× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio Dragon | 21.8× | 0.9× | 1.2× | — | 0.0% |
| HYBE | — | 2.0× | 1.9× | — | 0.3% |
| SM Entertainment | 13.3× | 1.7× | 1.4× | — | 2.1% |
| JYP Entertainment | 12.9× | 2.2× | 1.7× | 7.2× | 2.2% |
| CJ CGV | — | 1.1× | 0.4× | — | 0.0% |
| YG Entertainment | 20.9× | 1.4× | 1.1× | — | 0.8% |
| The Pinkfong | 4.2× | 0.8× | 1.9× | 1.9× | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 13.1× | 1.5× | 1.5× | 4.6× | 0.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Studio Dragon / 스튜디오드래곤 / 253450 / KRX:253450
Source: KRX statistical information