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Neosem

253590 · KOSDAQ · ₩253590 · 네오셈

₩17,130▲ ₩2,010 (13.29%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩2,615

vs the current price (₩17,130)

Enterprise value
₩80B
Equity value
₩115B
WACC
8.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 85% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
  • Margins ranged from 6.3% to 15.6% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 44% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 41.7× against a typical 24.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,926
−88.8%
Base
₩2,615
−84.7%
Bull
₩3,719
−78.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (12.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 12%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 9.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 11.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 18.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.81

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.72, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩83B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩34B
Shares
43,869,164
Share price
₩17,130
Market cap
₩751B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩101B₩105B₩64B₩79B₩77B₩76B₩77B₩79B
Growth35.2%4.3%−39.2%−5.0%−3.0%−1.0%1.0%3.0%
EBIT₩8.1B₩16B₩4.1B₩9.5B₩9.2B₩9.1B₩9.2B₩9.5B
EBIT margin8.0%15.6%6.3%12.0%12.0%12.0%12.0%12.0%
After-tax EBIT₩5.9B₩12B₩2.9B₩6.9B₩6.7B₩6.6B₩6.7B₩6.9B
+ Depreciation———₩7.6B₩7.4B₩7.3B₩7.4B₩7.6B
− Capital spending₩5.7B₩4.3B₩17B₩9.4B₩9.1B₩9B₩9.1B₩9.4B
− Working capital−₩8.8B−₩1.3B₩2.1B−₩770M−₩439M−₩142M₩141M₩426M
Free cash flow———₩5.8B₩5.3B₩5B₩4.8B₩4.6B
Discount factor———0.9210.8480.7820.7200.663
Present value———₩5.4B₩4.5B₩3.9B₩3.4B₩3.1B

Terminal value ₩91B, worth ₩60B today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,052 a share)Now 5.61×₩7,4912.45×₩10,9263.58×₩17,6665.79×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩411 a share)Now 41.7×₩4,91012.0×₩9,84924.0×₩24,10458.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩802 a share)Now 21.3×₩9,58912.0×₩19,23424.0×₩47,07358.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.6%₩2,713₩2,821₩2,949₩3,101₩3,287
8.1%₩2,573₩2,663₩2,768₩2,891₩3,039
8.6%₩2,452₩2,527₩2,615₩2,716₩2,835
9.1%₩2,345₩2,410₩2,483₩2,567₩2,665
9.6%₩2,252₩2,307₩2,369₩2,440₩2,522

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩751B
Enterprise value
₩715B
P/E
41.7×
P/B
5.6×
P/S
9.0×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.6%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩10,960₩8,740₩7,850₩3,365₩3,620
Market cap₩481B₩383B₩344B₩148B₩159B
P/E90.0×20.0×41.6×14.8×28.1×
P/B4.0×3.3×4.0×2.4×3.1×
P/S7.5×3.6×3.4×2.0×4.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.9%0.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Neosem41.7×5.6×9.0×—0.6%
Doosan Enerbility208.4×4.6×2.1×—0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor82.2×24.4×33.1×74.0×0.4%
Jusung Engineering1,121.0×13.7×36.0×2,158.2×0.0%
Rainbow Robotics4,006.5×51.3×151.2×—0.0%
EO Technics44.8×6.5×10.9×—0.0%
Doosan Bobcat13,664.7×914.4×736.1×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)664.7×19.1×34.5×1,116.1×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Neosem / 네오셈 / 253590 / KRX:253590

Source: KRX statistical information