Mirai Semiconductors

254490 · KOSDAQ · ₩254490 · 미래반도체

₩15,000▲ ₩1,050 (7.53%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩13,389

vs the current price (₩15,000)

Enterprise value
₩274B
Equity value
₩193B
WACC
7.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩13,389
−10.7%
Bull
₩46,732
+211.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.2%).

Revenue growth

  • 4.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 18.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.92

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.88, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩80B
Shares
14,438,000
Share price
₩15,000
Market cap
₩217B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩381B₩488B₩636B₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.2T₩1.2T₩1.2T
Growth−30.8%28.2%30.3%4.9%4.4%4.0%3.5%3.0%
EBIT₩9.4B₩10B₩19B₩34B₩36B₩37B₩38B₩39B
EBIT margin2.5%2.1%3.0%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%
After-tax EBIT₩6.8B₩7.4B₩14B₩25B₩26B₩27B₩28B₩29B
+ Depreciation———₩32B₩33B₩35B₩36B₩37B
− Capital spending———₩43B₩44B₩46B₩48B₩49B
− Working capital−₩46B₩41B₩44B₩9.2B₩8.7B₩8.3B₩7.5B₩6.7B
Free cash flow———₩4.8B₩6B₩7B₩8.3B₩9.6B
Discount factor———0.9280.8610.7990.7410.687
Present value———₩4.5B₩5.1B₩5.6B₩6.1B₩6.6B

Terminal value ₩358B, worth ₩246B today: 90% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩10,552 a share)Now 1.42×₩19,1941.82×₩28,3772.69×₩45,4164.30×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩3,412 a share)Now 4.40×₩29,0888.52×₩82,78424.3×₩111,70332.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩5,263 a share)Now 2.85×₩44,8668.52×₩127,68724.3×₩172,29232.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.8%₩16,079₩16,948₩17,987₩19,256₩20,844
7.3%₩14,068₩14,711₩15,467₩16,368₩17,467
7.8%₩12,360₩12,838₩13,389₩14,034₩14,802
8.3%₩10,893₩11,246₩11,647₩12,109₩12,647
8.8%₩9,619₩9,879₩10,168₩10,495₩10,870

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩217B
Enterprise value
₩297B
P/E
4.4×
P/B
1.4×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

202520242023
Price₩16,280₩10,840₩23,450
Market cap₩235B₩157B₩339B
P/E16.6×25.9×66.9×
P/B2.1×1.8×4.2×
P/S0.4×0.3×0.9×
EV/EBITDA———
Dividend yield0.0%——

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Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Mirai Semiconductors4.4×1.4×0.2×—0.0%
Samsung C&T18.8×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.6×1.3×0.3×—3.7%
ISC45.3×6.0×12.6×—0.5%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies18.9×1.6×5.1×—4.2%
Shinsegae14.4×0.5×0.3×—2.0%
Similar companies (median)16.6×1.0×1.0×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Mirai Semiconductors / 미래반도체 / 254490 / KRX:254490

Source: KRX statistical information