Mirai Semiconductors미래반도체
254490 · KOSDAQ · ₩254490 · 미래반도체
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩13,389
vs the current price (₩15,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩274B
- Equity value
- ₩193B
- WACC
- 7.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩13,389
- −10.7%
- Bull
- ₩46,732
- +211.5%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.2%).
Revenue growth
- 4.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 3.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 18.6%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.92
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.88, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩80B
- Shares
- 14,438,000
- Share price
- ₩15,000
- Market cap
- ₩217B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩381B | ₩488B | ₩636B | ₩1.1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T |
| Growth | −30.8% | 28.2% | 30.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩9.4B | ₩10B | ₩19B | ₩34B | ₩36B | ₩37B | ₩38B | ₩39B |
| EBIT margin | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩6.8B | ₩7.4B | ₩14B | ₩25B | ₩26B | ₩27B | ₩28B | ₩29B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩32B | ₩33B | ₩35B | ₩36B | ₩37B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩43B | ₩44B | ₩46B | ₩48B | ₩49B |
| − Working capital | −₩46B | ₩41B | ₩44B | ₩9.2B | ₩8.7B | ₩8.3B | ₩7.5B | ₩6.7B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩4.8B | ₩6B | ₩7B | ₩8.3B | ₩9.6B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.928 | 0.861 | 0.799 | 0.741 | 0.687 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩4.5B | ₩5.1B | ₩5.6B | ₩6.1B | ₩6.6B |
Terminal value ₩358B, worth ₩246B today: 90% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩10,552 a share)Now 1.42× | ₩19,1941.82× | ₩28,3772.69× | ₩45,4164.30× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩3,412 a share)Now 4.40× | ₩29,0888.52× | ₩82,78424.3× | ₩111,70332.7× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩5,263 a share)Now 2.85× | ₩44,8668.52× | ₩127,68724.3× | ₩172,29232.7× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | ₩16,079 | ₩16,948 | ₩17,987 | ₩19,256 | ₩20,844 |
| 7.3% | ₩14,068 | ₩14,711 | ₩15,467 | ₩16,368 | ₩17,467 |
| 7.8% | ₩12,360 | ₩12,838 | ₩13,389 | ₩14,034 | ₩14,802 |
| 8.3% | ₩10,893 | ₩11,246 | ₩11,647 | ₩12,109 | ₩12,647 |
| 8.8% | ₩9,619 | ₩9,879 | ₩10,168 | ₩10,495 | ₩10,870 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩217B
- Enterprise value
- ₩297B
- P/E
- 4.4×
- P/B
- 1.4×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩16,280 | ₩10,840 | ₩23,450 |
| Market cap | ₩235B | ₩157B | ₩339B |
| P/E | 16.6× | 25.9× | 66.9× |
| P/B | 2.1× | 1.8× | 4.2× |
| P/S | 0.4× | 0.3× | 0.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — |
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Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirai Semiconductors | 4.4× | 1.4× | 0.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung C&T | 18.8× | 0.5× | 1.2× | — | 0.9% |
| POSCO International | 10.6× | 1.3× | 0.3× | — | 3.7% |
| ISC | 45.3× | 6.0× | 12.6× | — | 0.5% |
| Youngone | 5.1× | 0.7× | 0.7× | — | 3.1% |
| Dong SUH Companies | 18.9× | 1.6× | 5.1× | — | 4.2% |
| Shinsegae | 14.4× | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 2.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 16.6× | 1.0× | 1.0× | — | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Mirai Semiconductors / 미래반도체 / 254490 / KRX:254490
Source: KRX statistical information