Krafton크래프톤
259960 · KOSPI · ₩259960 · 크래프톤
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩831,459
vs the current price (₩182,500)
- Enterprise value
- ₩34T
- Equity value
- ₩38T
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 356% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩182,500, the model needs an operating margin of 5.8% every year (it uses 36.6%).
- Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩4.8T, operating profit ₩1.3T (28.1% margin) (2 brokers). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
- Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩5T, operating profit ₩1.3T (26.4% margin) (2 brokers). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
- Margins ranged from 31.7% to 43.6% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- Today's P/E is 10.0× against a typical 15.9× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩608,303
- +233.3%
- Base
- ₩831,459
- +355.6%
- Bull
- ₩1,188,052
- +551.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (36.6%).
Revenue growth
- 21.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 16.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 12.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 7.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 36.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 1.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 16%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩4.5T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩2.6T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩1.4T
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩138B
- Shares
- 45,916,188
- Share price
- ₩182,500
- Market cap
- ₩8.4T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.9T | ₩2.7T | ₩3.3T | ₩5.4T | ₩6.3T | ₩7.1T | ₩7.6T | ₩7.9T |
| Growth | 3.1% | 41.8% | 22.8% | 21.5% | 16.9% | 12.3% | 7.6% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩768B | ₩1.2T | ₩1.1T | ₩2T | ₩2.3T | ₩2.6T | ₩2.8T | ₩2.9T |
| EBIT margin | 40.2% | 43.6% | 31.7% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩557B | ₩857B | ₩764B | ₩1.4T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.9T | ₩2T | ₩2.1T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩87B | ₩101B | ₩114B | ₩122B | ₩126B |
| − Capital spending | ₩36B | ₩27B | ₩102B | ₩108B | ₩126B | ₩142B | ₩153B | ₩157B |
| − Working capital | −₩2.4T | ₩65B | −₩98B | ₩153B | ₩146B | ₩124B | ₩86B | ₩37B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩1.3T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.9T | ₩2T |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.753 | 0.702 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩1.2T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T |
Terminal value ₩39T, worth ₩28T today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩157,076 a share)Now 1.16× | ₩226,7231.44× | ₩303,0991.93× | ₩419,5872.67× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩18,185 a share)Now 10.0× | ₩194,90010.7× | ₩289,78015.9× | ₩401,70322.1× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩862,179 | ₩928,271 | ₩1,009,596 | ₩1,112,118 | ₩1,245,378 |
| 6.8% | ₩793,041 | ₩846,630 | ₩911,288 | ₩990,850 | ₩1,091,148 |
| 7.3% | ₩734,863 | ₩779,029 | ₩831,459 | ₩894,720 | ₩972,562 |
| 7.8% | ₩685,238 | ₩722,141 | ₩765,355 | ₩816,656 | ₩878,555 |
| 8.3% | ₩642,415 | ₩673,613 | ₩709,724 | ₩752,010 | ₩802,210 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩8.4T
- Enterprise value
- ₩5.8T
- P/E
- 10.0×
- P/B
- 1.2×
- P/S
- 1.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.2%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩246,000 | ₩312,500 | ₩193,600 | ₩168,000 | ₩460,000 |
| Market cap | ₩11T | ₩14T | ₩8.9T | ₩7.7T | ₩21T |
| P/E | 15.4× | 11.0× | 14.9× | 15.4× | 40.6× |
| P/B | 1.6× | 2.1× | 1.6× | 1.5× | 4.6× |
| P/S | 3.4× | 5.3× | 4.7× | 4.2× | 11.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.9% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krafton | 10.0× | 1.2× | 1.9× | — | 1.2% |
| Hyundai Autoever | 46.8× | 4.7× | 2.0× | — | 0.6% |
| NC | 6.9× | 1.2× | 2.0× | 8.3× | 0.6% |
| Netmarble | 7.1× | 0.5× | 1.0× | — | 2.6% |
| PearlAbyss | 7.9× | 2.0× | 3.0× | 5.1× | 0.0% |
| Shift UP | 9.0× | 1.8× | 7.1× | — | 0.0% |
| NHN | 22.9× | 1.1× | 0.6× | 3.9× | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 8.4× | 1.5× | 2.0× | 5.1× | 0.3% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Krafton / 크래프톤 / 259960 / KRX:259960
Source: KRX statistical information