Ask Warren

UST

263770 · KOSDAQ · ₩263770 · 유에스티

₩1,453 ₩0 (0.00%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩3,561

vs the current price (₩1,453)

Enterprise value
₩67B
Equity value
₩84B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 145% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,453, the model needs an operating margin of 2.9% every year (it uses 10.2%).
  • Margins ranged from 4.0% to 16.2% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 9.1× against a typical 7.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩2,532
+74.3%
Base
₩3,561
+145.1%
Bull
₩5,357
+268.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.2%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 10.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 37.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.22, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩64B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩17B
Shares
23,700,172
Share price
₩1,453
Market cap
₩34B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩99B₩75B₩58B₩58B₩54B₩52B₩52B₩53B
Growth−0.7%−24.6%−22.5%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩14B₩6.9B₩2.3B₩5.9B₩5.5B₩5.3B₩5.3B₩5.5B
EBIT margin14.2%9.2%4.0%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%
After-tax EBIT₩10B₩5B₩1.7B₩4.3B₩4B₩3.8B₩3.8B₩4B
+ Depreciation———₩462M₩431M₩416M₩415M₩428M
− Capital spending₩1.2B₩1.1B₩183M₩578M₩539M₩520M₩519M₩535M
− Working capital−₩8.8B₩2.7B₩4.6B−₩2.4B−₩1.4B−₩700M−₩39M₩578M
Free cash flow———₩6.5B₩5.3B₩4.4B₩3.8B₩3.3B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩6.1B₩4.6B₩3.6B₩2.8B₩2.3B

Terminal value ₩68B, worth ₩47B today: 71% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,544 a share)Now 0.41×₩1,9280.54×₩3,0220.85×₩5,6031.58×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩159 a share)Now 9.13×₩9255.81×₩1,2617.92×₩2,67216.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩281 a share)Now 5.18×₩1,6315.81×₩2,2227.92×₩4,71116.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩3,773₩3,948₩4,164₩4,434₩4,786
6.8%₩3,528₩3,665₩3,831₩4,034₩4,290
7.3%₩3,321₩3,431₩3,561₩3,717₩3,909
7.8%₩3,144₩3,233₩3,337₩3,459₩3,607
8.3%₩2,992₩3,064₩3,148₩3,246₩3,361

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩34B
Enterprise value
₩17B
P/E
9.1×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,903₩1,942₩3,045₩3,120₩4,840
Market cap₩45B₩46B₩72B₩74B₩115B
P/E18.5×8.3×6.2×5.9×20.5×
P/B0.5×0.6×0.9×1.1×2.0×
P/S0.8×0.6×0.7×0.7×1.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.2%3.1%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
UST9.1×0.4×0.5×—4.1%
POSCO Holdings16.2×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.6%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.1×0.7×0.3×5.9×2.9%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.2×0.5×0.3×9.5×4.0%
Sama Aluminium—4.1×3.0×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)14.2×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: UST / 유에스티 / 263770 / KRX:263770

Source: KRX statistical information