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Crown Confectionery

264900 · KOSPI · ₩264900 · 크라운제과

₩7,200▲ ₩60 (0.84%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩15,298

vs the current price (₩7,200)

Enterprise value
₩165B
Equity value
₩203B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 112% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩7,200, the model needs an operating margin of 2.5% every year (it uses 4.2%).
  • Or revenue growth −21.6 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • Today's P/E is 8.1× against a typical 6.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩4,344
−39.7%
Base
₩15,298
+112.5%
Bull
₩35,100
+387.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.2%).

Revenue growth

  • 2.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 6.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.12, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩440B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩37B
+ Stakes and investments
₩865M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
13,297,410
incl. 773,560 preferred
Share price
₩7,200
Market cap
₩96B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩435B₩438B₩445B₩451B₩463B₩475B₩489B₩504B
Growth5.1%0.8%1.5%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.9%3.0%
EBIT₩28B₩21B₩15B₩19B₩19B₩20B₩21B₩21B
EBIT margin6.5%4.8%3.4%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%
After-tax EBIT₩21B₩15B₩11B₩14B₩14B₩14B₩15B₩15B
+ Depreciation₩8.9B——₩9.5B₩9.7B₩10B₩10B₩11B
− Capital spending₩57B₩18B₩4B₩28B₩28B₩29B₩30B₩31B
− Working capital−₩22B₩14B₩3.9B₩473M₩504M₩537M₩593M₩631M
Free cash flow−₩6.1B——−₩4.8B−₩4.9B−₩5.1B−₩5.3B−₩5.4B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7530.702
Present value———−₩4.5B−₩4.3B−₩4.1B−₩4B−₩3.8B

Terminal value ₩265B, worth ₩186B today: 112% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩17,318 a share)Now 0.42×₩8,2360.48×₩9,4390.55×₩12,2350.71×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩887 a share)Now 8.11×₩3,2123.62×₩6,1046.88×₩13,13414.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩16,008₩17,487₩19,307₩21,599₩24,578
6.8%₩14,454₩15,648₩17,087₩18,858₩21,089
7.3%₩13,156₩14,136₩15,298₩16,699₩18,422
7.8%₩12,059₩12,873₩13,826₩14,957₩16,321
8.3%₩11,120₩11,805₩12,597₩13,525₩14,625

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩90B
Enterprise value
₩49B
P/E
7.6×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.9%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩8,790₩7,790₩8,380₩8,500₩9,180
Market cap₩110B₩98B₩105B₩106B₩115B
P/E8.9×5.8×4.5×3.9×8.8×
P/B0.5×0.5×0.5×0.6×0.7×
P/S0.2×0.2×0.2×0.3×0.3×
EV/EBITDA——2.8×3.6×5.4×
Dividend yield3.2%3.6%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Crown Confectionery7.6×0.4×0.2×—3.9%
Samyang Foods17.5×5.6×3.1×—0.4%
Orion10.5×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.6%
Nongshim12.1×0.8×0.7×—1.5%
Otoki16.9×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.3×1.0×0.4×6.4×4.5%
Similar companies (median)16.9×0.9×0.6×5.8×3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Crown Confectionery / 크라운제과 / 264900 / KRX:264900

Source: KRX statistical information